Stablecoins and Macroeconomic Stability: A DSGE Investigation

IMF Working Papers, June 26, 2026

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Paper objective: develop a new monetarist DSGE model to examine the macroeconomic implications of fiat-money-backed stablecoins and the effectiveness of prudential policies in mitigating associated risks.
Sectoral structure:
- Centralized real economy: fiat money facilitates consumption and investment.
- Decentralized virtual economy: anonymous bilateral search and matching; transactions are exclusively conducted using stablecoins.
Calibration: model calibrated to the U.S. economy.

Stablecoins amplify the propagation of exogenous shocks to key macroeconomic variables by weakening the effectiveness of monetary policy.
Prudential regulations governing the backing ratio of stablecoins to fiat-denominated reserve assets can serve as stabilizing instruments.
Such prudential regulations are analogous to banking liquidity requirements and can:
- dampen volatility, and
- enhance macroeconomic resilience in the presence of stablecoins.

Regulatory focus on backing ratios of stablecoins to fiat-denominated reserve assets as a primary macroprudential tool.
Design prudential regulations similar in spirit to banking liquidity requirements to mitigate amplification of shocks and restore monetary policy effectiveness.
Use prudential policies to limit systemic transmission channels introduced by a decentralized virtual economy relying exclusively on stablecoins.

Source: Stablecoins and Macroeconomic Stability: A DSGE Investigation, IMF Working Papers, ByHui He, Yao Zhao, Dayong Zhou, June 26, 2026.