Central Bank Communication in Times of Uncertainty: AI-assisted Decoding of Recent Trends in Europe

IMF Working Papers, June 26, 2026

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Canonical URL: Central Bank Communication in Times of Uncertainty: AI-assisted Decoding of Recent Trends in Europe

Authors: Francesca Caselli, Luisa Charry, Larry Q Cui, Pragyan Deb, Allan Dizioli, Alexandra Fotiou, Ben Park, Sebastian Weber
Published: June 26, 2026
Series: IMF Working Papers
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229048996.001

More frequent large macroeconomic shocks since the global financial crisis have entrenched uncertainty, particularly in Europe.
Increased premium on central bank communication for guiding expectations and strengthening macroeconomic resilience.
Study provides a systematic assessment of recent central bank communication across advanced and emerging European economies, combining:
- a survey of institutional communication frameworks; and
- novel text-mining-based indicators on monetary policy guidance over 2009-2025.
Communication toolkits are broadly similar across economies, but intensity and transparency differ markedly.
Central banks in advanced economies make greater use of forward-looking tools.
Central banks in both advanced and emerging groups respond primarily to inflation uncertainty.
Communication strategies diverge: advanced economies increasingly shift toward forward-looking language; emerging markets shift toward more backward-looking communication.
Patterns highlight credibility and institutional capacity as key determinants of central bank communication under uncertainty.

Combines a survey of institutional communication frameworks with novel text-mining-based indicators.
Temporal coverage of the analysis: 2009-2025.
Geographic coverage: advanced and emerging European economies.

Communication toolkits: broadly similar in composition across central banks in Europe.
Intensity and transparency: differ markedly between advanced and emerging economies.
Use of forward-looking tools: greater in central banks of advanced economies.
Response drivers: central banks in both groups respond primarily to inflation uncertainty.
Directional shift in language:
- Advanced economies: increasingly shift toward forward-looking language.
- Emerging markets: shift toward more backward-looking communication.
Determinants: credibility and institutional capacity emerge as key factors shaping communication strategies under uncertainty.

Emphasize the role of communication in managing expectations and bolstering macroeconomic resilience amid frequent large shocks.
For central banks with established credibility and institutional capacity: consider expanding use of forward-looking tools and language to guide expectations.
For central banks with constrained credibility or capacity: recognize tendencies toward backward-looking communication and assess options to enhance transparency and forward guidance where feasible.
Tailor communication toolkits to institutional capacity and credibility constraints, given differing responses to inflation uncertainty.