Looking for Underlying Structure in WEO Forecasts
IMF Working Papers, July 31, 2026
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Yurii Sholomytskyi
- Published: July 31, 2026
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229056113.001
Overview
- Author: Yurii Sholomytskyi
- Date: July 31, 2026
- Scope: Examines statistical properties of IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) projections over 1999–2023 for 29 economies.
- Publication: IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2026/164, Issue 164, Volume 2026, Pages: 36.
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229056113.001
- Stock No: WPIEA2026164
- ISBN: 9798229056113
- ISSN: 1018-5941
- Subjects: COVID-19; Economic theory; Financial sector policy and analysis; Health; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Monetary policy; Prices; Spillovers; Supply shocks
- Keywords: A.IX robustness; COVID-19; data construction; Forecast error; Forecast fragmentation; Global; IMF; IMF working papers; IMF's World Economic Outlook; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Optimism bias; Spillovers; Supply shocks; World Economic Outlook
Key Findings
- The optimism of WEO growth forecasts is reaffirmed for the 1999–2023 sample across 29 economies.
- Forecast fragmentation:
- The growth of the systemic economies (the United States and China) appears underutilized in the projections.
- Forecasts embed less of the cross-country growth comovement present in the data; this gap is termed "forecast fragmentation."
- Forecast fragmentation did not narrow over the sample period.
- Growth–inflation link:
- The conditional growth–inflation link present in the historical data is weakly represented in the projections.
Interpretation and Analysis
- The identified patterns point to limitations in how expert-driven WEO projections incorporate measurable cross-country comovements and real–nominal linkages observed in historical data.
- The weak representation of the conditional growth–inflation relationship suggests that projections may underweight empirically observed real–nominal interactions when forming medium-term forecasts.
Policy Recommendations and Implications
- Structural models are proposed as a useful complement to expert judgment:
- Such models can verify cross-country and real–nominal linkages through estimation.
- Structural-model-based checks could serve as a baseline for medium-term anchors and help detect or constrain optimism bias in forecasts.
Source: IMF Working Paper by Yurii Sholomytskyi, "Looking for Underlying Structure in WEO Forecasts", IMF Working Papers 2026, 164 (2026); DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229056113.001; available at https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/07/31/looking-for-underlying-structure-in-weo-forecasts-578363
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