Deepening EU–Western Balkans Economic Integration: Scope and Economic Gains

IMF Working Papers, September 18, 2026

Source details

Canonical URL: Deepening EU–Western Balkans Economic Integration: Scope and Economic Gains

The paper examines opportunities for deeper economic integration between the EU and the Western Balkans and assesses their potential economic impact.
Key non-tariff barriers to Western Balkan–EU industrial goods trade—covering regulatory, customs, and border-logistics frictions—are documented as amounting to around 8–14 percent ad valorem equivalent.
Reducing these barriers, alongside deeper agri-food and services integration, could generate substantial gains for the Western Balkans.
The Western Balkans could capture roughly one-quarter to one-half of the economic benefits of full EU membership.
Deeper integration would also support EU objectives related to nearshoring, supply-chain resilience, regional integration, and connectivity.

Non-tariff barriers to industrial goods trade: around 8–14 percent ad valorem equivalent.
Coverage of frictions: regulatory, customs, and border-logistics.

Potential capture of benefits by the Western Balkans: roughly one-quarter to one-half of the economic benefits of full EU membership.
Complementary areas for integration highlighted: agri-food and services.

Priority actions implied by the analysis:
- Reduce regulatory frictions affecting industrial goods trade.
- Streamline customs procedures and reduce border-logistics delays.
- Deepen integration in agri-food sectors.
- Enhance services integration with the EU.
Alignment with EU strategic goals:
- Nearshoring.
- Supply-chain resilience.
- Regional integration.
- Connectivity.

IMF Working Paper No. 2026/196 by Lev Ratnovski (September 18, 2026).