Artificial Intelligence and Aggregate Labor Productivity: Evidence from Patent Data

IMF Working Papers

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Artificial Intelligence and Aggregate Labor Productivity: Evidence from Patent Data

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: Kodjovi M. Eklou
• Series: IMF Working Papers
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229061599.001

Overview

• The paper investigates the aggregate impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology on labor productivity using patent data in OECD countries during 2000-2017.
• Author: Kodjovi M. Eklou.
• Publication: IMF Working Paper No. 2026/204, September 25, 2026.
• Data focus: AI technology–related patent issuance and applications across OECD countries over 2000-2017.

Key empirical findings

• After accelerating in 2000, the issuance of AI technology related patents has more than tripled by 2017.
• OECD countries held about 89 percent of all these patents across the world during 2000-2017.
• Using a production function approach and considering the pace of AI patent applications over 2000-2017:
  • Labor productivity, measured as output per worker, has consequently increased by between 0.8 percent to 1.2 percent.
  • Innovation in AI technology could raise aggregate labor productivity by up to 3.8 percent in the long-run.
• The results are robust to accounting for a proxy of AI technology spillovers from other countries.

Mechanisms and heterogeneity

• Countries with a high share of employees in professional and managerial roles benefit from larger labor productivity gains from AI technology.
• Gains from task complementarity with AI may take time to materialize as workers learn to fully appropriate the technology.
• Labor market flexibility could shape labor productivity gains by enabling worker mobility.

Robustness and implications

• Robustness: Findings hold after controlling for international spillovers using a proxy of AI technology diffusion from other countries.
• Projection and interpretation:
  • Productivity gains could be larger in the future as the pace of innovation in AI gains new speed and spreads to more sectors of the economy.
  • Long-run aggregate gains from AI innovation are potentially larger than observed short-run estimates, reaching up to 3.8 percent according to the paper’s estimates.

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