Daniel Leigh

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Daniel Leigh

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: Daniel Leigh

Biography

Daniel Leigh is Mission Chief for Brazil and Advisor in the IMF's Western Hemisphere Department. Earlier, he headed the World Economic Studies division in the IMF's Research Department, which produces the World Economic Outlook (WEO), and the Open Economy Macroeconomics Division, which produces the External Sector Report. In previous roles, he was Deputy Division Chief in the Western Hemisphere Department, where he covered the United States and served as Mission Chief for Belize and Suriname. He also served as Assistant to the Director of the Research Department, and covered Gabon and Peru in the Fiscal Affairs Department. His research interests are in international macroeconomics, with a focus on fiscal and monetary policy and forecasting. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Johns Hopkins University and an M.Sc. in Economics from the London School of Economics.

Profile

Education

• Ph.D., Economics, Johns Hopkins University, 1999-2004

• M.Sc., Economics, London School of Economics, 1998-1999

• B.A. (First Class Honours), Economics, University of Manchester, 1994-1998

Previous Experience

• International Monetary Fund, Research Department: Senior Economist (World Economic Studies division), 2009-2012.

• International Monetary Fund, Fiscal Affairs Department: Economist (Fiscal Policy division), 2006-2009; Economist Program (Fiscal Policy division), 2005-2006.

• International Monetary Fund, European Department: Economist Program (Hungary and Lithuania country assignments), 2004-2005.

• International Monetary Fund. European Department: Summer Intern (2002). Estimated effect of exchange rate fluctuations on inflation in Turkey and developed inflation forecasting model.

• Inter-American Development Bank. Research Department: Summer Intern (2001). Investigated effect of currency union on trade with a focus on EMU.

Field of Expertise

• Monetary Policy

• Open Economy Macroeconomics

• Public Finance

• Labor Economics

IMF Occasional Papers, Pamphlets, and Special Issues Papers

• "Growth in the Central and Eastern European Countries of the European Union" (with S. Schadler, A. Mody, and A. Abiad). IMF Occasional Paper No. 252.

IMF Publications

IMF Books and Working Papers

• Monetary Policy Transmission to Lending Rates: Evidence from Brazil, Working Paper No. 2025/152 , July 25, 2025

• The Rise and Retreat of US Inflation: An Update, Working Paper No. 2025/094 , May 16, 2025

• An Updated Action-based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation, Working Paper No. 2024/210 , September 27, 2024

• Unconventional Fiscal Policy in Times of High Inflation, Working Paper No. 2023/178 , September 1, 2023

• 2022 Update of the External Balance Assessment Methodology, Working Paper No. 2023/047 , March 3, 2023

• Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era, Working Paper No. 2022/208 , October 28, 2022

• Measuring U.S. Core Inflation: The Stress Test of COVID-19, Working Paper No. 2021/291 , December 17, 2021

• U.S. Investment Since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Working Paper No. 2019/120 , May 31, 2019

• Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts, Working Paper No. 2019/114 , May 23, 2019

• Is the Cycle the Trend? Evidence From the Views of International Forecasters, Working Paper No. 2018/163 , July 13, 2018

• Global Market Power and its Macroeconomic Implications, Working Paper No. 2018/137 , June 15, 2018

• The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Latin America, Working Paper No. 2018/142 , June 13, 2018

• A New Action-based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation in Latin America and the Caribbean, Working Paper No. 2018/094 , April 26, 2018

• Exchange Rates and Trade: A Disconnect?, Working Paper No. 2017/058 , March 15, 2017

• Wage Moderation in Crises: Policy Considerations and Applications to the Euro Area, Staff Discussion Notes No. 2015/022 , November 17, 2015

• The Distributional Effects of Fiscal Consolidation, Working Paper No. 2013/151 , June 21, 2013

• Okun's Law: Fit at 50?, Working Paper No. 2013/010 , January 14, 2013

• Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers, Working Paper No. 2013/001 , January 3, 2013

• Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence, Working Paper No. 2011/158 , July 1, 2011

• A New Action-Based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation, Working Paper No. 2011/128 , June 1, 2011

• To Starve or Not to Starve the Beast?, Working Paper No. 2010/199 , September 1, 2010

• What’s the Damage? Medium-term Output Dynamics After Banking Crises, Working Paper No. 2009/245 , November 1, 2009

• Monetary Policy and the Lost Decade: Lessons from Japan, Working Paper No. 2009/232 , October 1, 2009

• Monetary and Fiscal Policy Options for Dealing with External Shocks - Insights from the GIMF for Colombia, Working Paper No. 2009/059 , March 1, 2009

• Fiscal and Monetary Policy During Downturns: Evidence From the G7, Working Paper No. 2009/050 , March 1, 2009

• The Second Transition: Eastern Europe in Perspective, Working Paper No. 2009/043 , March 1, 2009

• Achieving a Soft Landing: The Role of Fiscal Policy, Working Paper No. 2008/069 , March 1, 2008

• Alternative Fiscal Rules for Norway, Working Paper No. 2007/241 , October 1, 2007

• Ensuring Fiscal Sustainability in G-7 Countries, Working Paper No. 2007/187 , July 1, 2007

• Fiscal Adjustments: Determinants and Macroeconomic Consequences, Working Paper No. 2007/178 , July 1, 2007

• Catch-Up Growth, Habits, Oil Depletion, and Fiscal Policy: Lessons from the Republic of Congo, Working Paper No. 2007/080 , April 1, 2007

• International Finance and Income Convergence: Europe is Different, Working Paper No. 2007/064 , March 1, 2007

• Fuel Price Subsidies in Gabon: Fiscal Cost and Distributional Impact, Working Paper No. 2006/243 , October 1, 2006

• Natural-Resource Depletion, Habit Formation, and Sustainable Fiscal Policy: Lessons from Gabon, Working Paper No. 2006/193 , August 1, 2006

• Estimating the Implicit Inflation Target: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy, Working Paper No. 2005/077 , April 1, 2005

• Leading Indicators of Growth and Inflation in Turkey, Working Paper No. 2002/231 , December 1, 2002

• Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey, Working Paper No. 2002/204 , November 1, 2002

IMF Country Reports

• "Will It Hurt? Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation" (lead author, with P.Devries, C.Freedman, J.Guajardo, D.Laxton, A.Pescatori), Chapter 3, World Economic Outlook, IMF, October 2010.

• "Dealing with Household Debt" (lead author, with D.Igan, J.Simon, P.Topalova, E.R.Karlsdottir, and F.Rozwadowski), Chapter 3, World Economic Outlook, IMF, April 2012.

• "Getting the Balance Right: Transitioning Out of Sustained Current Account Surpluses" (with A.Abiad, M.Terrones), Chapter 4, World Economic Outlook, IMF, April 2010.

• "What's the Damage? Medium-Term Output Dynamics after Financial Crises," (with A.Abiad, R.Balakrishna, P.Koeva Brooks, I.Tytell), Chapter 4, World Economic Outlook, IMF, September 2009.

• "Separated at Birth: The Twin Budget and Trade Balances" (with A.Abiad, J.Bluedorn, J.Guajardo, and M.Kumhof), Chapter 4, World Economic Outlook, IMF, September 2011.

• "Target What You Can Hit: Commodity Price Swings and Monetary Policy" (with A.Pescatori, A.Alichi, L.Catão, O.Kamenik, H.Kim, D.Laxton, R.Portillo, and F.Zanna), Chapter 3, World Economic Outlook, IMF, September 2011.

Non-IMF Publications

Publications in Journals (Referred)

• "Expansionary Austerity? International Evidence" (with A.Pescatori and J.Guajardo). Journal of the European Economic Association (forthcoming).

• "Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers" (with O.Blanchard). American Economic Review 103 (May 2013): 117-20.

• “Revisiting the Twin Deficits Hypothesis: The Effect of Fiscal Consolidation on the Current Account” (with J.Bluedorn). IMF Economic Review 59 (2011): 582–602.

• “Painful Medicine” (with L.Ball and P.Loungani). Finance&Development (September 2011): 20-23.

• "Monetary Policy and the Lost Decade: Lessons from Japan." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 42 (August 2010): 833-857.

• “Natural Resource Depletion, Habit Formation, and Sustainable Fiscal Policy” (with J.Olters). Revue d’économie politique 3 (May-June 2010): 487-508.

• “Financial Integration, Capital Mobility, and Income Convergence” (with A.Abiad and A.Mody). Economic Policy 58 (April 2009): 241-305.

• “The Second Transition” (with S.Fabrizio, and A.Mody). European Economy 366 (March 2009).

• “Estimating the Federal Reserve’s Implicit Inflation Target: A State Space Approach.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 32 (2008).

• “To Starve or Not to Starve the Beast” (with M.Kumhof and D.Laxton). Journal of Macroeconomics (forthcoming).

• "To Starve or Not to Starve the Beast?" (with M.Kumhof and D.Laxton). Journal of Macroeconomics (forthcoming).

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