Fabian Valencia

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Fabian Valencia

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: Fabian Valencia

Biography

Fabián Valencia is Division Chief and Mission Chief for Paraguay in the Western Hemisphere Department of the International Monetary Fund. Prior to his current position, he served as Advisor and as Deputy Chief in the Macrofinancial Unit of SPR, supporting the IMF’s efforts to strengthen macrofinancial surveillance. He has also worked in the Western Hemisphere and Research Departments of the IMF. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from The Johns Hopkins University and a M.Sc. in Economics from the Catholic University of Leuven, Belgium. His research interests include financial crises, monetary policy, macroprudential policy, and financial intermediation and the real economy.

Profile

Education

• Ph.D. in Economics, Johns Hopkins University, 2006

• M.Sc. in Economics, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, 1999

• B.A. in Economics, Universidad Católica de Guayaquil, 1997

Referee Activities

• American Economic Review, Economic Journal, Economic Letters, European Economic Review, European Journal of Political Economy, IMF Economic Review, International Economic Review, Economics, Economica, International Journal of Central Banking, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Journal of Banking and Finance, Journal of Financial Intermediation, Journal of Financial Stability, Journal of International Economics, Journal of International Money and Finance, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Journal of Political Economy, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Review of Economic Studies.

IMF Publications

IMF Books and Working Papers

• Systemic Banking Crises Database: 1970-2025, Working Paper No. 2026/094 , May 15, 2026

• Carbon Risk in Loan Pricing: Commitment Channels and Real Effects, Working Paper No. 2025/250 , December 5, 2025

• Macro-Financial Policies and Vulnerabilities in IMF-Supported Programs, Working Paper No. 2025/097 , May 23, 2025

• Macroprudential Policy Effects: Evidence and Open Questions, Departmental Paper No 2023/002 , March 31, 2023

• Handle with Care: Regulatory Easing in Times of COVID-19, Working Paper No. 2021/049 , February 26, 2021

• Effects of Macroprudential Policy: Evidence from Over 6,000 Estimates, Working Paper No. 2020/067 , May 22, 2020

• Systemic Banking Crises Revisited, Working Paper No. 2018/206 , September 14, 2018

• Welfare Gains from Market Insurance: The Case of Mexican Oil Price Risk, Working Paper No. 2018/035 , March 2, 2018

• Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Working Paper No. 2016/240 , December 13, 2016

• Corporate Investment in Emerging Markets: Financing vs. Real Options Channel, Working Paper No. 2015/285 , December 30, 2015

• Made in Mexico: Energy Reform and Manufacturing Growth, Working Paper No. 2015/045 , February 27, 2015

• Monetary Policy in the New Normal, Staff Discussion Notes No. 2014/003 , April 4, 2014

• Financial Crises : Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses, , February 19, 2014

• Aggregate Uncertainty and the Supply of Credit, Working Paper No. 2013/241 , December 2, 2013

• Systemic Banking Crises Database: An Update, Working Paper No. 2012/163 , June 1, 2012

• Central Bank Independence and Macro-Prudential Regulation, Working Paper No. 2012/101 , April 1, 2012

• Balance-Sheet Shocks and Recapitalizations, Working Paper No. 2012/068 , March 1, 2012

• Monetary Policy, Bank Leverage, and Financial Stability, Working Paper No. 2011/244 , October 1, 2011

• Crisis Management and Resolution: Early Lessons from the Financial Crisis, Staff Discussion Notes No. 2011/005 , March 9, 2011

• The Real Effects of Financial Sector Interventions During Crises, Working Paper No. 2011/045 , March 1, 2011

• Bank Capital and Uncertainty, Working Paper No. 2010/208 , September 1, 2010

• Monetary Policy and Bank Risk-Taking, Staff Position Note No. 2010/009 , July 27, 2010

• Resolution of Banking Crises: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly, Working Paper No. 2010/146 , June 1, 2010

• Precautionary Reserves: An Application to Bolivia, Working Paper No. 2010/054 , March 1, 2010

• The Use of Blanket Guarantees in Banking Crises, Working Paper No. 2008/250 , October 1, 2008

• Banks’ Precautionary Capital and Persistent Credit Crunches, Working Paper No. 2008/248 , October 1, 2008

• Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database, Working Paper No. 2008/224 , September 1, 2008

IMF Country Reports

• Paraguay: 5th Review under the Policy Coordination Instrument and 3rd Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility

• The Bahamas : 2017 Article IV Consultation

• The Bahamas : 2018 Article IV Consultation

Selected Issues

• Welfare Gains from Hedging Oil-price Risk, 2016 Mexico Selected Issues Paper, Ch. 3, with Chang Ma.

• Fiscal Multipliers in Mexico, 2015 Mexico Selected Issues Paper, ch. 1.

• Corporate Vulnerabilities and Impact on the Real Economy, 2015 Mexico Selected Issues Paper, ch. 3, with Julian Chow.

• A Carbon Tax Proposal for Mexico, 2015 Mexico Selected Issues Paper, ch. 4

• Strengthening Mexico's Fiscal Framework, 2015 Mexico Selected Issues Paper, ch. 5.

Other Published Materials

• Macroprudential Policy Effects: Evidence and Open Questions, 2023, IMF Departmental Paper, with N. Biljanovska, S. Chen, G. Gelos, D. Igan, M. Martinez Peria, E. Nier.

• 2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review - Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Policy Advice in Article IV Consultations, 2021, with a MCM/SPR staff team.

• Implementation Plan In Response To The Executive Board-Endorsed Recommendations From The IEO Evaluation Of The IMF’s Financial Surveillance, 2019.

• Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-through, 2016, IMF working paper, with Y. Carriere-Swallow, B. Gruss, and N. Magud.

• Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses. International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C., with S. Claessens, A. Kose, and L. Laeven (eds.)

• Unconventional Monetary Policies - Recent Experiences and Prospects, with an IMF Staff team

• A Banking Union for the Euro Area, 2013, IMF Staff Discussion Note 13/1, with an IMF Staff team

• The Interaction of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies, 2013, IMF policy paper. With S. Claessens, K. Habermeier, E. Nier, H. Kang, and T. Mancini

• How Costly are the 2007-2009 Systemic Banking Crises?, 2010, with Luc Laeven, in "Financial Sector Taxation. The IMF's Report to the G-20 and Background Material." Edited by Stijn Claessens, Michael Keen, and Ceyla Pazarbasioglu. International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C., September 2010.

• Monetary Policy and Bank Risk Taking, 2010, with Gianni De Nicolo, Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, and Luc Laeven. IMF Staff Position Note 10/09

• Policy Responses to Systemic Banking Crises, 2010, in MacroFinancial Linkages: Trends, Crises, and Policies. Edited by Christopher Crowe, Simon Johnson, Jonathan Ostry, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer. International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C. 2010

• Global Financial Regulatory Reform: Implications for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), 2009, with a team led by Robert Rennhack. Staff Position Note 2009/20.

• A Survey of Financial Linkages, 2008, with Gaston Gelos and Martin Cerisola. In Who's Driving Whom? Analyzing External and Intra-Regional Linkages in the Americas. Edited by Martin Mulheisen, Shaun Roache, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer.

Non-IMF Publications

Publications in Journals (Refereed)

• Effects of macroprudential policy: Evidence from over 6000 estimates, 2024, Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 169, with J. Araujo, M. Patnam, A. Popescu, W. Yao

• Welfare gains from market insurance: The case of Mexican oil price risk, 2024, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 142, with C. Ma.

• Handle with Care: Prudential Regulatory Easing in Times of COVID-19, 2022, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics (BEJM), De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 363-396, with R. Varghese, W. Yao, and J. Yépez.

• Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through, 2021, International Journal of Central Banking 17(3): 61-94, with Y. Carrière-Swallow, B. Gruss, and N. Magud

• Systemic Banking Crises Database II, 2020, IMF Economic Review, Vol. 68, pp. 307-361, with L. Laeven

• Financial Shocks and Corporate Investment in Emerging Markets, 2020, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 52, pp. 613-644, with D. Li and N. Magud.

• Aggregate Uncertainty and the Supply of Credit, 2017, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 81, 150–165.

• Made in Mexico: Energy Reform and Manufacturing Growth, 2016, Energy Economics, with J. Alvarez, vol. 55, 253-265.

• Bank Capital and Uncertainty, 2016, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 69, S1-S9.

• Monetary Policy, Bank Leverage, and Financial Stability,2014, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 47, 20-38.

• Central Bank Independence and Macro-prudential Regulation, 2014, Economic Letters, vol. 125(2), 327-330. With Kenichi Ueda.

• Banks' Precautionary Capital and Credit Crunches, 2014, Macroeconomic Dynamics, vol. 18 (8), 1726-1750.

• Financial Crises and Recapitalizations, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 45, Issue s2, November 2013, pp. 59-86, with D. Sandri

• Systemic Banking Crises Database, IMF Economic Review, Volume 61, Issue 2, June 2013, pp. 225-270 (lead article), with Luc Laeven.

• The Real Effects of Financial Sector Interventions during Crises, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Volume 45, Issue 1, February 2013 , pp. 147-177, with Luc Laeven

• The use of blanket guarantees in banking crises, Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 31, Issue 5, September 2012, Pages 1220–1248, with Luc Laeven

Other Published Materials

• Macroprudential policies are effective, with limited side effects – but open questions remain. April 2023. Voxeu column, with G. Gelos, M. Martinez-Peria, and E. Nier.

• To Hedge or to Self-insure? The Benefits of Mexico’s Oil Hedging Program, 2018, IMF Diálogo a Fondo

• Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-through, 2017, voxeu, with Y. Carriere-Swallow, B. Gruss, and N. Magud.

• Mexico: Setting curse for a greener future, 2015, IMF Diálogo a Fondo

• Assessing Corporate Risk in Mexico, 2015, IMF Diálogo a Fondo, with Julian Chow.

• Fiscal Impact of Lower Oil Prices on Latin America and the Caribbean, 2015, IMFdirect, with Robert Rennhack

• The interaction between monetary and macroprudential policies, 2013, voxeu, with Stijn Claessens

• Resolution of Banking Crises, 2013, Ch. 26 of Handbook of Safeguarding Global Financial Stability, pages 231-258, Elsevier, with L. Laeven.

• The curse of advanced economies in resolving banking crises, 2012, voxeu, with Luc Laeven.

Content in this bundle

• Cr15314 (PDF)
• Spn0919 (PDF)