Fiscal Risk Management

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Comprehensive analysis, disclosure and management of fiscal risks—factors that can cause fiscal outcomes to differ from expectations—is needed to ensure sound public finances, macroeconomic stability, and fiscal transparency.
The past two decades have shown that fiscal risk realizations can be costly, occur frequently, and arise from a variety of sources.
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered the largest fiscal risk realization since World War II and led to policy responses that, while necessary, have in many cases resulted in additional fiscal risk exposures.

The IMF’s Fiscal Risk Toolkit comprises a suite of analytical tools to guide government policy and capacity development; the tools provide a practical basis to help countries identify, analyze, manage, and disclose fiscal risks.
The tools are regularly updated as revisions are made.
The IMF’s Knowledge Hub includes high-level analytical and policy papers, detailed How to Notes on approaches to analyzing and managing specific fiscal risks, and individual country capacity development reports tailored to particular situations.

Identify, monitor, and manage fiscal risks using structured analytical tools and capacity development.
Improve transparency through regular and comprehensive disclosure of fiscal risks.
Combine better understanding of fiscal risks with transparent reporting and effective risk management to underpin fiscal credibility and the sustainability of public finances.
Regularly update analytical tools and guidance to reflect evolving risk environments and lessons from recent realizations, including the COVID-19 pandemic.