Несинхронность и расходящаяся динамика восстановления могут поставить финансовую стабильность под угрозу

IMF Seminars, January 1, 1901

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Published: January 1, 1901

Цели конференции и контекст

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in collaboration with the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET) and the Deutsche Bundesbank, hosted a two-day conference on financial networks at the IMF’s Headquarters in Washington, D.C. on May 8-9, 2014.
Purpose: bring together leading academics and senior policy-makers for an intensive dialogue on the implications of financial interconnectedness for systemic risk and financial stability.
Motivation: the global financial crisis highlighted the need to better understand how direct and indirect exposures across asset markets and players create systemic risk and macroeconomic instability.

Основные исследовательские темы и выводы

Financial interconnectedness encompasses direct and indirect exposures from various asset markets and players; interbank exposures have been most studied, but securities and state-contingent exposures also matter.
Systemic risk can arise through network linkages so that the failure or distress of one or more entities can have negative spillovers throughout the financial system and the real sector, domestically and across borders.
The global financial crisis prompted an overhaul of the regulatory framework and motivated regulators and supervisory authorities to develop new models and tools for analyzing interconnectedness and its implications for systemic stability.
One fundamental characteristic making financial players systemically important is their degree of interconnectedness.
Despite substantial academic work on financial networks since the crisis, many challenges remain.

Программа и представленные исследования (выдержки)

Conference schedule: May 8-9, 2014; IMF HQ2 Conference Hall 1, Washington, D.C.
Opening remarks: Olivier Blanchard (Economic Counsellor and Director, Research Department, IMF).
Keynote / plenary speaker: Joseph E. Stiglitz (Columbia University and INET) on "Interconnectedness and Financial Stability".
Sessions and selected papers:
- Session 1: Financial Networks in OTC and Interbank Markets
- Paper: "Trading Partners in the Interbank Lending Market" — Gara Afonso (NY Fed), Anna Kovner* (NY Fed), Antoinette Schoar (MIT). Discussant: Peter Hoffmann (ECB).
- Session 2: Financial Networks in OTC and Interbank Markets
- Paper: "A Network View on Interbank Liquidity" — Silvia Gabrieli (Banque de France) and Co-Pierre Georg* (Deutsche Bundesbank). Discussant: Robin Lumsdaine (American University).
- Paper: "EffIciency and Stability of a Financial Architecture with Too-Interconnected-to-Fail Institutions" — Michael Gofman* (Wisconsin). Discussant: Mila Gemansky Sherman (UMass Amherst).
- Session 3: Welfare Implications of Financial Networks
- Paper: "Mandatory Disclosure and Financial Contagion" — Fernando Alvarez (Chicago) and Gadi Barlevy* (Chicago Fed). Discussant: Tariq Roukny (Université Libre de Bruxelles).
- Paper: "Intermediation in Networks" — Mihai Manea* (MIT). Discussant: Fernando Vega-Redondo (Bocconi).
- Paper: "Bilateral Trading in Networks" — Daniele Condorelli* (Essex) and Andrea Galeotti (Essex). Discussant: Ben Craig (Deutsche Bundesbank).
- Session 4: Financial Networks and Systemic Risk
- Paper: "Intermediation and Voluntary Exposure to Counterparty Risk" — Maryam Farboodi* (Chicago Booth). Discussant: Livio Stracca (ECB).
- Paper: "Financial Networks and Contagion" — Matthew Elliott (Caltech), Benjamin Golub* (Harvard), Matthew O. Jackson (Stanford). Discussant: Benjamin Tabak (Universidade Catolica de Brasilia and Federal Senate).
- Paper: "How Likely is Contagion in Financial Networks?" — Paul Glasserman (Columbia), H. Peyton Young* (Oxford). Discussant: Brenda González-Hermosillo (IMF, Monetary and Capital Markets Department).
- Session 5: Interconnectedness in Policy Work
- Paper: "Addressing Interconnectedness: Concepts and Prudential Tools" — Nicolas Arregui, Mohamed Norat, Antonio Pancorbo, Jodi Scarlata (IMF). Presenter: Mohamed Norat (IMF, Monetary and Capital Markets Department).
- Paper: "Sweden and the Global Banking System: Network Links and Vulnerabilities" — Presenter: Eugenio Cerutti (IMF, Research Department).
- Paper: "Crisis Transmission in the Global Banking Network" — Galina Hale (San Francisco Fed), Tümer Kapan (Fannie Mae), Camelia Minoiu (IMF, Research Department). Presenter: Camelia Minoiu (IMF, Research Department).
- Session 6: The Present and Future Role of Financial Networks
- Paper: "The Present and Future Role of Financial Networks" — Stefano Battiston (University of Zürich), Co-Pierre Georg (Deutsche Bundesbank), Joseph E. Stiglitz (Columbia University and INET). Presenter: Stefano Battiston (University of Zürich).
- Closing Panel chaired by José Viñals (Financial Counselor and Director, IMF, Monetary and Capital Markets Department) with panelists Claudia Buch, Sujit Kapadia, Nellie Liang, Patricia Mosser, Sanjay Sharma.

Политические последствия и рекомендации

Strengthen coordination between academic and policy communities to inform regulatory and supervisory approaches to interconnections and systemic risk.
Develop and refine models and tools to analyze interconnectedness arising from interbank, securities, and state-contingent exposures.
Use network analysis to identify systemically important institutions by degree of interconnectedness and to assess spillover channels domestically and across borders.
Enhance prudential tools and concepts for addressing interconnectedness as part of the post-crisis regulatory overhaul.

Логистика и участие

Conference attendance: by invitation only. Interested parties were asked to email interconconf@imf.org, with a note that capacity constraints meant not all requests could be accommodated.
Conference timing: started Thursday, May 8 at 9:00 a.m. and concluded Friday, May 9 at 2:00 p.m. with a high-level panel discussion followed by lunch.
Security: invited attendees were required to present photo identification on entering the IMF at 1900 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W., Washington D.C.
Organizers: Stefano Battiston (University of Zürich), Co-Pierre Georg (Deutsche Bundesbank), Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo (IMF), Camelia Minoiu (IMF).

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