Riding the Energy Transition : Oil Beyond 2040

Author/Editor:

Reda Cherif ; Fuad Hasanov ; Aditya Pande

Publication Date:

May 22, 2017

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary:

Recent technological developments and past technology transitions suggest that the world could be on the verge of a profound shift in transportation technology. The return of the electric car and its adoption, like that of the motor vehicle in place of horses in early 20th century, could cut oil consumption substantially in the coming decades. Our analysis suggests that oil as the main fuel for transportation could have a much shorter life span left than commonly assumed. In the fast adoption scenario, oil prices could converge to the level of coal prices, about $15 per barrel in 2015 prices by the early 2040s. In this possible future, oil could become the new coal.

Series:

Working Paper No. 17/120

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

May 22, 2017

ISBN/ISSN:

9781484301128/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2017120

Price:

$18.00 (Academic Rate:$18.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

42

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