Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: The Role of External Conditions

Author/Editor:

Bertrand Gruss ; Malhar S Nabar ; Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro

Publication Date:

March 12, 2018

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary:

This paper investigates how country-specific external demand, external financial conditions, and terms of trade affect medium-term growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies and the occurrence of growth accelerations and reversals. The importance of country-specific external conditions for medium-term growth has increased over time—in particular, the growing contribution of external financial conditions accounts for one-third of the increase in average income per capita growth between 1995–2004 and 2005–14. Stronger external demand and financial conditions significantly increase the probability of growth accelerations, while a strengthening of any of the three conditions significantly decreases the probability of reversals.

Series:

Working Paper No. 18/52

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

March 12, 2018

ISBN/ISSN:

9781484345450/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2018052

Price:

$18.00 (Academic Rate:$18.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

39

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