Supply-Side Effects of Disinflation Programs

Author/Editor:

Jorge Roldos

Publication Date:

July 1, 1994

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

This paper focuses on the short-run and long-run supply-side effects of disinflation programs in a two-sector economy. Fixing the exchange rate reduces the wedge between the return on foreign assets and that on domestic capital, leading to an increase in the latter. After an initial real exchange rate appreciation and increase in the production of nontradables—due to a consumption boom—the new capital is gradually installed in the tradable sector. During this transitional period, further real appreciation takes place—as the expansion of the tradable sector pulls labor away from the nontradable sector—together with investment-driven deficits in the current account. We conclude that when appreciation and deficits are due to supply-side rigidities, rather than to credibility and/or price stickiness, no further policies (i.e., capital controls, incomes policies) are advisable.

Series:

Working Paper No. 1994/084

Subject:

Notes:

Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 42, No. 1, March 1995.

English

Publication Date:

July 1, 1994

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451954425/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA0841994

Pages:

36

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