Globalization, Gluts, Innovation or Irrationality: What Explains the Easy Financing of the U.S. Current Account Deficit?

By Ravi Balakrishnan, Volodymyr Tulin, Tamim Bayoumi

July 1, 2007

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Ravi Balakrishnan, Volodymyr Tulin, and Tamim Bayoumi. Globalization, Gluts, Innovation or Irrationality: What Explains the Easy Financing of the U.S. Current Account Deficit?, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2007) accessed September 18, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper examines the roles of U.S. financial innovation, financial globalization, and the savings glut hypothesis in explaining the rise in U.S. external debt, first in a portfolio balance model, and then empirically. Perhaps surprisingly, financial deepening and falling home bias in industrialized countries explain a large share of external financing. The savings glut hypothesis (including difficult-to-track petrodollar recycling) and U.S. financial innovation are also important, in part as a cause of declining home bias in industrialized countries. The latter underscores the importance of not looking at these factors in isolation, but rather as a constellation of forces that can be self-reinforcing.

Subject: Bonds, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Foreign assets, Securities markets, Sovereign bonds

Keywords: Current account, Fixed income, Global bond, Government bond, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

39
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2007/160
Stock No:

WPIEA2007160
ISBN:

9781451867244
ISSN:

1018-5941

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