Commodity Prices and Inflation in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia

Publication Date:

June 1, 2010

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

Inflation followed a strikingly uniform pattern in all countries of the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia during the period 1996-2009, falling until about 2000 and then rising. International fuel prices do not help explain this pattern. This conclusion is robust even when different cross sections of countries are tested or when different regression variables are included. The pattern of inflation is explained mainly by past inflation, the strength of the US dollar, US inflation, and—depending on the subset of countries analyzed—monetary and exchange rate policies and nonfuel commodity prices.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2010/135

Subject:

Commodity prices Exchange rate arrangements Exchange rates Fuel prices Inflation

English

Publication Date:

June 1, 2010

ISBN/ISSN:

9781455201181/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2010135

Pages:

33

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