An Econometric Analysis of Countries' Repayment Performance to the International Monetary Fund

Author/Editor:

Lynn Aylward ; Rupert Thorne

Publication Date:

March 1, 1998

Electronic Access:

Free Download. Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

While the literature on external debt repayment performance by sovereign debtors is extensive, repayment performance vis-à-vis the International Monetary Fund has not been dealt with separately. Given differences between the Fund and other providers of financial resources, this paper considers whether it is possible to distinguish through logit analysis between the countries that make timely repayments to the Fund and those that become overdue. The paper finds that the inclusion of Fund-specific financial variables and a small number of macroeconomic variables yields a highly significant econometric model of the probability of a country incurring Fund arrears.

Series:

Working Paper No. 1998/032

Subject:

Notes:

Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 45, No. 4, December 1998.

English

Publication Date:

March 1, 1998

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451979893/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA0321998

Pages:

47

Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org