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Author/Editor:
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Aiyar, Shekhar ; Duval, Romain ; Puy, Damien ; Wu, Yiqun ; Zhang, Longmei
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Publication Date:
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March 20, 2013
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Electronic Access:
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Free Full text
(PDF file size is 1,533KB).
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.
The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
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Summary:
The “middle-income trap” is the phenomenon of hitherto rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high-income countries. In this study we examine the middle-income trap as a special case of growth slowdowns, which are identified as large sudden and sustained deviations from the growth path predicted by a basic conditional convergence framework. We then examine their determinants by means of probit regressions, looking into the role of institutions, demography, infrastructure, the macroeconomic environment, output structure and trade structure. Two variants of Bayesian Model Averaging are used as robustness checks. The results—including some that indeed speak to the special status of middle-income countries—are then used to derive policy implications, with a particular focus on Asian economies.
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Order a print copy
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Series:
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Working Paper No. 13/71
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Subject(s):
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Economic growth | East Asia | Latin America | Developing countries | Cross country analysis | Economic models
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English
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Publication Date:
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March 20, 2013
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ISBN/ISSN:
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9781484330647/2227-8885
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Format:
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Paper
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Stock No:
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WPIEA2013071
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Pages:
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64
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Price:
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US$18.00 )
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Please address any questions about this title to
publications@imf.org
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