Spillovers from Global and Regional Shocks to Armenia
Electronic Access:
Free Download. Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file
Summary:
Using a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model, this paper examines the size, geographical sources, and transmission channels of global and regional shocks to the Armenian economy. Results show that Armenian economic activity is strongly influenced by global demand shocks and changes in oil prices, yet relatively immune to financial volatility. Transmission takes place through the Russian and EU economies, remittances, and external borrowing. The role of exports and tourism is low. Russia is key in transforming the potentially negative impact of an increase in oil prices into a positive event, through stronger remittances and exports. Services and construction, which depend significantly on remittances and external borrowing, are the most affected by global and regional shocks.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2015/241
Subject:
Balance of payments Econometric analysis Exports Financial sector policy and analysis International trade Oil prices Prices Remittances Spillovers Structural vector autoregression
English
Publication Date:
November 23, 2015
ISBN/ISSN:
9781513590462/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2015241
Pages:
25
Please address any questions about this title to publications@imf.org