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World Economic and Financial Surveys

Regional Economic Outlook:
Sub-Saharan Africa

Staying the Course

October 2014
©2014 International Monetary Fund

The October 2014 Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa anticipates continued strong growth in much of Sub-Saharan Africa, driven by efforts to invest in infrastructure and by strong agricultural production. However, the current Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone is exacting a heavy toll, with spillovers to neighboring countries. In addition, external threats to the region's overall positive outlook include global financial conditions and a slowdown in emerging market growth. Other topics are building resilience in fragile states and addressing the infrastructure deficit.


Contents
Abbreviations
Acknowledgements
Executive Summary
1.  Staying the Course
  Introduction and Summary
  Will Stronger Global Ties Continue to Support Growth?
  Public Debt: Vulnerabilities in Some Countries
  The Outlook: Strong Prospects, but Downside Risks
2.  Building Resilience in Fragile States in Sub-Saharan Africa
  Introduction
  The Analytics of Fragility
  Factors and Policies Associated with Building Resilience
  Case Studies
  The Way Forward
3.  Addressing the Infrastructure Deficit in Sub-Saharan Africa
  Introduction and Summary
  Stylized Facts: The Current Status of Sub-Saharan Africa’s Infrastructure
  The Financing of Infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Broad Overview
  The Way Forward: Policies to Reduce the Infrastructure Deficit
  Conclusions
Statistical Appendix
References
Publications of the IMF African Department, 2009–14
 
Boxes
1.1. Comparing the Cost of Sovereign Bond Issuance in Domestic and Foreign Currencies
1.2. More Diversification than Previously Thought? Examples from Recent National Account Rebasing
2.1. Gauging Fragility in Sub-Saharan Africa
2.2. Logit Framework
3.1. Regional Infrastructure
3.2. Financial Contracts to Facilitate Infrastructure Investments
3.3. Role of Multidonor Budget Support and Donors in Leveraging Private Capital
3.4. New Infrastructure Financing Initiatives
 
Tables
1.1. Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP Growth
1.2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Other Macroeconomic Indicators
2.1. Average Change in CPIA Scores by Country Groups
2.2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Social Indicators
3.1. Strengths and Weaknesses of Infrastructure Financing Modalities
 
Figures
Chapter 1
1.1. World GDP Growth and Sub-Saharan Africa Export Growth
1.2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Exports by Partner
1.3. World Export Interconnectedness, 2000 and 2013
1.4. Current Account Balances and Investment, 2010–13
1.5. Selected Economies: Change in Sovereign Spreads since May 2013 and Fiscal Balance over 2013–14
1.6. Sub-Saharan Africa: Outstanding International Sovereign Bonds for Markets Access Economies
1.7. Sub-Saharan Africa: GDP Growth Synchronization: 1990–2013
1.8. Sub-Saharan Africa: Transmission of Shocks from Advanced and Emerging Economies
1.9. Sub-Saharan Africa: Gross External Financing, Average 2012–13
1.10. Sub-Saharan African Selected Countries: Currency Depreciation and Inflation Between end-April 2013 and end-July 2014
1.11. Sub-Saharan Africa: Public Sector Debt, 2004–13
1.12. Sub-Saharan Africa: Contribution to Public Sector Debt Accumulation, 2011–13
1.13. Sub-Saharan Africa: Overall Fiscal Balance, 2004–13
1.14. Market Access Countries: Overall Fiscal Balance, 2011 versus 2013
1.15. Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries: Largest Negative Fiscal Balance Deviation from Projection, 2013
1.16. Sub-Saharan Africa: Change in Primary Fiscal Balance and Capital Expenditure, 2013
1.17. Sub-Saharan Africa: Average Grant Element, 2001–12
1.18. Sub-Saharan Africa: Impact on GDP Level from External Shocks
Chapter 2
2.1. Building Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa
2.2. Macroeconomic Indicators
2.3. Average Growth Volatility in Real GDP per Capita: 1990s versus 2000s
2.4. Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP per Capita Growth Acceleration and Deceleration, 1990–2011
2.5. Sub-Saharan Africa: Fiscal Institutions and Policy Space
2.6. Sub-Saharan African Fragile States: Fiscal Space Indicators
2.7. Sub-Saharan African Fragile States: Social Indicators
2.8. Overall CPIA Scores
2.9. Factors in Building Resilience
2.10. Political Stability, 1996–2011
2.11. CPIA Public Sector Management and Institutions Cluster, 2005–13
2.12. Government Revenue, 1990–2013
2.13. Control of Corruption, 1998–2012
2.14. Rule of Law, 1998–2012
2.15. Real GDP per Capita
Chapter 3
3.1. Sub-Saharan Africa: Levels of Infrastructure Development, 2000 and 2010
3.2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Sectoral Infrastructure Developments
3.3. Emerging and Developing Economies: Purchasing Power Parity GDP per Capita versus Quality of Infrastructure, 2013
3.4. Sub-Saharan Africa: Rank of Deviations of World Economic Forum Scores, 2013
3.5. Sub-Saharan Africa: Public Infrastructure and External Financing Sources, 2007 and 2012
3.6. Sub-Saharan Africa: Private Participation in Infrastructure Investment by Country, 1995–2012
3.7. Sub-Saharan Africa: New Syndicated and Large Bilateral Loans for Infrastructure by Lender Nationality, 2006–13
3.8. Sub-Saharan Africa: Tenor of New Syndicated and Large Bilateral Loans
3.9. Sub-Saharan Africa: Average Public Investment versus Change in Quality of Infrastructure Scores, 2006–13
3.10. Sub-Saharan Africa: Low-Income Countries: Median General Government Revenue, 1990–2013