WEO Database May 1999

Transcript of a Press Conference by Michael Mussa on the World Economic Outlook

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World Economic Outlook
  WORLD ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL SURVEYS
World Economic Outlook
International Financial Contagion
May 1999

A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund
©1999 International Monetary Fund

The World Economic Outlook presents the IMF staff’s analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF’s global surveillance activities.
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Contents
Assumptions and Conventions
The World Economic Outlook Database
Preface
Chapter I.  
210k pdf file  
World Economic Outlook and Policy Responses
  to the Global Slowdown
  A New Phase in the Global Crisis, and Remaining Risks
  Latin America: Addressing the Brazilian Crisis and
   Meeting Other Adjustment Needs
  Policy Failures in Russia and Effects on Neighboring
   Countries
  Japan: Seeking a Turnaround
  Asia and the Pacific: Toward Recovery
  Africa and the Middle East: Uneven Spillovers from
   Global Slowdown
  North America: How Long Can the United States Remain
   the Main Engine of Global Growth?
  Europe: A New Currency and Other Challenges
 Boxes
  1.1 Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for 
Selected Advanced Economies
  1.2 Potential Macroeconomic Implications of the Year 2000 Computer Bug
  1.3 Are There Dangers of Increasing Protection?
  Tables
  1.1 Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
  1.2 Selected Developing Countries: Real GDP and Consumer Prices
  1.3 Countries in Transition: Real GDP and Consumer Prices
  1.4 Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment Rates
  1.5 Major Industrial Countries: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
  Figures
  1.1 Global Indicators
  1.2 World Industrial Production
  1.3 Financing Conditions for Emerging Markets
  1.4 Selected European Countries, Japan, and the United States: Indicators of Consumer and Business Confidence
Chapter II.  
294k pdf file
Global Repercussions of the Crises in Emerging
  Markets and Other Conjunctural Issues
  Brazil's Financial Crisis: Origins and Likely Economic
   Consequences
  Whither Russia?
  Financial Flows in the Wake of the Brazilian Crisis and
   the Sustainability of External Imbalances
  Foreign Exchange and Financial Markets: The Impact of
   Brazil's Devaluation and Other Developments
  Why Are Some Emerging Market Countries Relatively
   Unaffected by the Financial Crisis?
  How Are Commodity Exporters Adjusting to the Crisis?
  What Are the Implications of the U.S. Saving-Investment
   Imbalance?
  Boxes
  2.1 Exchange Rate Crashes and Inflation: Lessons for Brazil
  2.2 Measuring Household Saving in the United States
Tables
  2.1 Selected Latin American Economies: Macroeconomic Indicators
  2.2 Selected Latin American and Asian Countries: Regional Trade Links in 1997
  2.3Russian Federation: Recent Macroeconomic Developments and 1999 Baseline Scenario
  2.4 Gross Private Financing to Emerging Market Economies
  2.5 Emerging Market Economies: Net Capital Flows
  2.6 Selected Economies: Current Account Positions
  2.7 Selected Countries: Estimates of Underlying Current Account Balances
  2.8 China, India, and Sub-Saharan Africa: International Trade and Financial Links
  2.9 Selected Asian Economies: Macroeconomic Indicators
  2.10   Africa: Selected Indicators
  2.11Commodity Exporters and Importers: Impact of Large Commodity Price Swings
  2.12 Oil-Exporting Emerging Market Economies: Impact of Oil Price Decline
  2.13 Alternative Scenario: Simulation Results
  Figures
  2.1 Selected Crisis Countries: Industrial Output Recovery Paths
  2.2 Changes in Current Account Balances
  2.3 Asian-5 Economies: Trade Developments
  2.4 Selected Advanced Economies: Net Foreign Assets
  2.5 Major Industrial Countries: Nominal Interest Rates
  2.6 Advanced Economies: Equity Prices
  2.7 Major Industrial Countries: Effective Exchange Rates
  2.8 Selected Emerging Market Countries: Short-Term Interest Rates
  2.9 Selected Latin America Countries: Brady Bond Spreads
  2.10 Selected Emerging Market Countries: Bilateral U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates
  2.11 Developing Countries: Equity Prices
  2.12 Russia: Exchange Rate and Tradable Debt
  2.13 Developing Countries: External Debt by Maturity and Type of Creditor, 1998
  2.14 Prices of Crude Petroleum and Nonfuel Commodities
  2.15 World Industrial Production and Commodity Prices
  2.16 Selected Advanced Economies: Private, Public, and Foreign Net Saving
  2.17 United States: Household Net Worth
  2.18 United States: Household Debt and Debt-Service Payments
Chapter III.  
189k pdf file
International Financial Contagion
The Changing Nature of Currency Crises
  Assessing the Role of Fundamentals and Contagion in
   Recent Crisis Episodes
  Contagion and Currency Crashes
  Some Policy Implications
  Boxes
  3.1 Recent Experience with Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations
  Figures
  3.1 Net Capital Flows to Developing Countries, by Component
  3.2 Incidence of Currency Crises During the 1990s
  3.3 Frequency of Crises by Country Group
  3.4 Selected Countries: Short-Term Interest Rates
  3.5 Selected Countries: Stock Prices
  3.6 Emerging Market Yield Spreads
  3.7Common Shocks: Interest Rates, Output Growth, Exchange Rates, and Trade Prices
  3.8 Characteristics of Countries Vulnerable to Contagion
  3.9 Countries Vulnerable to Contagion: Characteristics of Composite Indicators
  3.10 Selected Countries: Indicators of Vulnerability
Chapter IV.  
211k pdf file
Chronic Unemployment in the Euro Area: Causes
  and Cures
  Underlying Causes
  Cures: An Integrated Approach
  Overcoming Obstacles to Labor Market Reform
  Boxes
  4.1 Labor Market Slack: Concepts and Measurement
  4.2 EMU and European Labor Markets
  4.3 Labor Markets--An Analytical Framework
  4.4 The OECD Jobs Study
  Tables
  4.1 Wage Bargaining Structure in 18 Industrial Countries, 1980–94
  4.2 Evaluation of the Strictness of Labor Market Regulation
  4.3 Comparison of Unemployment Benefit Generosity, 1994–96
  4.4 Overall Tax Wedges, 1994
  4.5Marginal Effective Tax Rates (METR) in Selected Industrial Countries,1994–95
  4.6 Implementation of OECD Jobs Study Recommendations
  Figures
  4.1Euro Area, the United States, and Japan: Comparative Labor Market Performance
  4.2Euro Area, the United States, and Japan: Cyclical and Structural Components of Unemployment, 1997
  4.3 Euro Area and the United States: Productivity Growth, Terms of Trade, and Real Interest Rates
  4.4 Euro Area and the United States: Changes in Real Labor Cost and Employment
  4.5 Euro Area and the United States: Unemployment and Capacity Utilization
  4.6 Euro Area and the United States: Labor Union Density and Coverage of Collective Wage Contracts
  4.7 Euro Area and the United States: Participation and Employment Rates
  4.8 Euro Area and the United States: Size of the Welfare State
Annex.
338k pdf file
Summing Up by the Acting Chairman
World Economic Outlook, Executive Board Meeting,
   April 2, 1999
 
  Statistical Appendix
Assumptions
Data and Conventions
Classification of Countries
  List of Tables
   Output (Tables 1–7)
   Inflation (Tables 8–13)
   Financial Policies (Tables 14–21)
   Foreign Trade (Tables 22–26)
   Current Account Transactions (Tables 27–32)
   Balance of Payments and External Financing
   (Tables 33–37)
   External Debt and Debt Service (Tables 38–43)
   Flow of Funds (Table 44)
   Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables 45–46)
 
  Selected Topics
World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics, 1992–99