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Jordan: Climate Policy Diagnostic

June 14, 2024
This technical assistance conducts a climate policy diagnostic for Jordan, covering climate adaptation and mitigation policy, as well as enabling institutions. Jordan faces acute challenges of climate-food-water nexus—innovative climate policy approaches are key, given limited fiscal space. While Jordan needs to strengthen the investment climate for climate investment through streamlining existing policies and alleviating critical barriers, making social policy more shock-responsive and strengthening risk management can go a long way in building resilience. As climate-related risks globally intensify, the government is encouraged to move toward a risk-informed policy and financing strategy.

Broadening the Gains from GenAI: The Role of Fiscal Policies

June 13, 2024
Join us for a fireside chat between IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath and The Washington Post Columnist and Editorial Board Member Heather Long

Lifting productivity in Oman: The Role of Structural Reforms

June 13, 2024
Oman’s potential nonhydrocarbon real GDP growth has trended downward since the global financial crisis, with a negative contribution from total factor productivity. This paper estimates productivity gains associated with structural reforms and identifies key binding constraints and reform priorities to boost productivity in Oman. Our results show that reforms to reduce the state’s footprint and strengthen institutions, as well as product market reforms, should be prioritized and packaged together to magnify productivity gains from labor market and financial sector reforms. These findings could inform the planning and implementation of the ongoing structural reform agenda envisaged under Oman Vision 2040.

A Financial Sector for the Economy of the Future: Oman

June 13, 2024
Underpinned by Vision 2040, Oman aims to reduce its economic reliance on the hydrocarbon sector by diversifying its economy. Reforms are targeted to develop a well-diversified, private-led, sustainable, and inclusive economy where innovation and knowledge play a more prominent role. This requires the existence of a well-developed, inclusive, and stable financial sector that can navigate the country’s transformation and fund the new economy. As the economic transformation gains traction and entrepreneurship and innovation take center stage, Oman’s financial sector will face a more complex environment where it needs to develop innovative financial and risk management solutions to cater for the emerging and expanding financial needs of the different players in the economy. Against this background, this note provides an assessment of the development of Oman’s financial sector, identifies areas for potential improvement, and proposes policy actions to foster further financial development and inclusion.

Monetary Policy Transmission in Oman

June 13, 2024
Amid a pegged exchange rate to the US dollar and an open capital account, Oman’s policy rates move closely with US monetary policy. In this analysis, we show empirically that transmission from policy rates into effective lending and deposit rates remains subdued in Oman, even compared to GCC peers that similarly face a high oil price environment with persistent excess liquidity in the banking system. A cap on personal loan rates and low exposure of banks to SMEs and riskier borrowers limit passthrough into effective lending rates and credit conditions. The note documents ongoing actions by Omani policymakers to strengthen transmission and provides further recommendations on liquidity management, reserve management, and relaxing the interest rate cap.

Mitigating Fiscal Risks in Oman

June 13, 2024
Fiscal risks are multifaceted in Oman and their potential impact on the fiscal position could be significant. Identification, monitoring, transparent reporting, and effective risk management of fiscal risks are a key component of a sound medium-term fiscal framework and paramount in underpinning fiscal credibility and the sustainability of public finances. This note revisits the exposure of Oman’s fiscal position to an array of potential risks, zooming in on the impact of oil price volatility and potential risks stemming from state-owned enterprises. It documents actions taken by Omani policymakers to mitigate the impact of fiscal risks and provides further recommendations on fiscal risk disclosure and management.

Bulgaria: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bulgaria

June 13, 2024
For two years in 2021–23, a political stalemate hampered policymaking as Bulgaria needed to stir the exit from the pandemic, cope with the global inflation shock and the fallout of Russia’s war in Ukraine, secure its energy supply, implement reforms to unlock EU Funds, and prepare for euro adoption. The government formed in June 2023 prioritized euro and Schengen areas accession, NGEU funds delivery, and judicial reforms. It fell in March 2024, increasing the risk of delays in key policy decisions. Despite the succession of international and domestic shocks, the economy showed resilience and can achieve a soft landing if inflation decelerates towards 2 percent as expected under the baseline. Moreover, longstanding intertwined challenges remain: convergence toward EU average income is lagging peers, investment is low, perception of corruption is large, inequality is high, poverty is widespread, the population is shrinking, and the growth model still relies largely on brown energy.

Bulgaria: Selected Issues

June 13, 2024
Selected Issues

Sri Lanka: 2024 Article IV Consultation and Second Review Under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Modification of Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sri Lanka

June 13, 2024
Reform efforts are bearing fruit with the economy starting to recover, inflation remaining low, revenue collection improving, and reserves continuing to accumulate. Performance under the program, the design of which benefitted from the 2021 Article IV recommendations, has been strong. Nevertheless, the economy is still vulnerable and the path to debt sustainability remains knife-edge. Sri Lanka faces considerable uncertainties associated with the upcoming presidential elections and ongoing debt restructuring. Sustaining the reform momentum is critical to safeguarding the hard-earned gains and ensuring Sri Lanka can emerge from one of its most severe economic crises.

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