World Economic Outlook
Recessions and Recoveries
April 2002
April 2002
| The World Economic Outlook presents the IMF staff’s analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF’s global surveillance activities. |
| Contents | ||
| 232k pdf file | Assumptions and Conventions |
|
| Preface |
||
| Foreword |
||
| Chapter I. 516k pdf file |
Economic Prospects and Policy Issues | |
| North America: A Strengthening Recovery | ||
| Japan: Significant Challenges Remain | ||
| How Will the Recovery in Europe Compare with That in the United States? | ||
| Latin America: Resisting Spillovers from the Crisis in Argentina | ||
| The Asia-Pacific Region: Turning the Corner | ||
| European Union Candidates: Resisting the Global Downturn | ||
| Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS): Continued Resilience | ||
| Africa: Solid Growth Despite a Weak External Environment | ||
| Middle East: Oil Price Volatility and Regional Security | ||
| Appendix 1.1. Commodity Markets | ||
| Appendix 1.2. Weakness in Japan, Global Imbalances, and the Outlook | ||
| References |
||
| Boxes | ||
| 1.1 | Was It a Global Recession? | |
| 1.2 | On the Accuracy of Forecasts of Recovery | |
| 1.3 | The Introduction of Euro Notes and Coins | |
| 1.4 | China's Medium-Term Fiscal Challenges | |
| 1.5 | Rebuilding Afghanistan | |
| 1.6 | Russia's Rebound |
|
| Tables | ||
| 1.1 | Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections | |
| 1.2 | Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment | |
| 1.3 | Selected Economies: Current Account Positions | |
| 1.4 | Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt | |
| 1.5 | Emerging Market Economies: Net Capital Flows | |
| 1.6 | Selected Western Hemisphere Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | |
| 1.7 | Selected Asian Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | |
| 1.8 | European Union Candidates: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | |
| 1.9 | Commonwealth of Independent States: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | |
| 1.10 | Selected African Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | |
| 1.11 | Selected Middle Eastern Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance | |
| 1.12 | Impact of a $5 a Barrel, Permanent Increase in Oil Prices After One Year | |
| 1.13 | Alternative Scenario: Japanese Weakness and Exchange
Rate Adjustment |
|
| Figures | ||
| 1.1 | Global Indicators | |
| 1.2 | Emerging Signs of Recovery | |
| 1.3 | Financial Market Optimism | |
| 1.4 | Emerging Market Financing Conditions | |
| 1.5 | Global Recovery | |
| 1.6 | United States: Recessions and Recoveries8 | |
| 1.7 | Japanese Policy Dilemmas | |
| 1.8 | European Slowdown | |
| 1.9 | Western Hemisphere: EMBI Plus Spreads and Exchange Rate | |
| 1.10 | Selected Latin American Countries: Export Shares, 2000 | |
| 1.11 | Asia: Slowdown in Electronics Exports | |
| 1.12 | Growth and External Balances in Central and Eastern Europe | |
| 1.13 | Commonwealth of Independent States: Managing Oil Price Volatility | |
| 1.14 | Sub-Saharan Africa: Solid Growth in 2002 and 2003 | |
| 1.15 | Middle East: Responding to Oil Price Volatility | |
| 1.16 | OPEC Target and Actual Production of Oil | |
| 1.17 | Share of World Oil Production of OPEC | |
| 1.18 | Movements in Nonfuel Commodity Prices and G-7 Real GDP | |
| 1.19 | Spot and Futures Commodity Prices | |
| 1.20 | Alternative Scenario |
|
| Chapter II. 305k pdf file |
Three Essays on How Financial Markets Affect Real Activity | |
| Debt Crises: What's Different About Latin America? | ||
| Is Wealth Increasingly Driving Consumption? | ||
| Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Era | ||
| Appendix 2.1. A Stylized Model of Monetary Policy | ||
| References |
||
| Boxes | ||
| 2.1 | How Important Is the Wealth Effect on Consumption? | |
| 2.2 | A Household Perspective on the Wealth Effect | |
| 2.3 | Can Inflation Be Too Low? |
|
| Tables | ||
| 2.1 | Export Performance in Latin America and Asia | |
| 2.2 | Volatility and Sovereign Debt Defaults and Reschedulings | |
| 2.3 | Sensitivity of Governments' Primary Deficits to the Business Cycle in Selected Emerging Markets | |
| 2.4 | General Government Interest Expenditure: Some International Comparisons | |
| 2.5 | General Government Debt: Percentage Share of External Debt | |
| 2.6 | Household Wealth and Indebtedness | |
| 2.7 | Equity and Housing Wealth Effects | |
| 2.8 | Estimated Impact of Change in Asset Value on Real Consumer Spending, 2000Q1–2001Q3 | |
| 2.9 | Estimated Parameters of the Stylized Model for the U.S. Economy | |
| 2.10 | Estimated Parameters of the Stylized Model for Other
Advanced Economies |
|
| Figures | ||
| 2.1 | Sovereign Defaults and Reschedulings | |
| 2.2 | External Debt | |
| 2.3 | Debt Service | |
| 2.4 | Foreign Exchange Restriction Index | |
| 2.5 | Total Public Debt | |
| 2.6 | Gross Private Saving | |
| 2.7 | Fiscal Balance and International Reserves in the Run-Up to Sovereign Debt Crises | |
| 2.8 | Ratio of Net Wealth to Disposable Income and Personal Saving Rate | |
| 2.9 | Ratio of Net Wealth to Disposable Income and Stock Price | |
| 2.10 | Selected Advanced Economies: Housing Prices and Market Capitalization | |
| 2.11 | Saving Rate Behavior in Response to Asset Price Changes | |
| 2.12 | Inflation in Selected Advanced Economies | |
| 2.13 | Inflation has Become Less Volatile and More Predictable | |
| 2.14 | Volatility in Output and Inflation | |
| 2.15 | Improving Monetary Policy Effectiveness |
|
| Chapter III. 238k pdf file |
Recessions and Recoveries | |
| Were Business Cycles in the Late Nineteenth Century Different from Modern Cycles? | ||
| Modern Business Cycles in Industrial Countries: A Tale of 93 Cycles | ||
| The Current Cycle | ||
| Appendix 3.1. Business Cycle Turning Points | ||
| References |
||
| Boxes | ||
| 3.1 | Measuring Business Cycles | |
| 3.2 | The Great Depression | |
| 3.3 | Historical Evidence on Financial Crises | |
| 3.4 | Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries | |
| 3.5 | Capital Account Crises in Emerging Market Countries |
|
| Tables | ||
| 3.1 | Recessions and Expansions: 1881–2000 | |
| 3.2 | Relative Contributions to Recessions | |
| 3.3 | Relative Contributions to Recoveries | |
| 3.4 | Real Stock Price Contractions and Recoveries in Industrial Countries | |
| 3.5 | Changes in Short-Term Interest Rates |
|
| Figures | ||
| 3.1 | Real Output Growth | |
| 3.2 | Synchronization of Recessions, 1881–2000 | |
| 3.3 | Recession Depth and Cyclical Path of Output | |
| 3.4 | Recession Depth and Duration | |
| 3.5 | Key Business Cycle Characteristics | |
| 3.6 | Synchronization of Recessions | |
| 3.7 | Cyclical Paths of Output and Investment | |
| 3.8 | Synchronization of Contractions in Output, Investment, and Consumption | |
| 3.9 | Contributions to Growth | |
| 3.10 | Synchronization of Contractions in Output and Stock
Prices |
|
| Annex. 397k pdf file |
Summing Up by the Acting Chair |
|
| Statistical Appendix | ||
| Assumptions | ||
| Data and Conventions | ||
| Classification of Countries | ||
| General Features and Compositions of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification | ||
| Countries in Transition | ||
| List of Tables | ||
| Output (Tables 1–7) | ||
| Inflation (Tables 8–13) | ||
| Financial Policies (Tables 14–21) | ||
| Foreign Trade (Tables 22–26) | ||
| Current Account Transactions (Tables 27–32) | ||
| Balance of Payments and External Financing
(Tables 33–37) |
||
| External Debt and Debt Service (Tables 38–43) | ||
| Flow of Funds (Table 44) | ||
| Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables 45–46) |
||
| Box | ||
| A1 | Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections
for Selected Advanced Economies |
|
| 119k pdf file | World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics, 1992–2002 | |
