Contents |
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| 49 kb pdf file
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Assumptions and Conventions |
| Preface |
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Foreword |
Chapter I.
493 kb pdf file
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Economic Prospects and Policy Issues |
| United States and Canada: How Long Will the
U.S. Soft Patch Persist? |
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Western Europe: A Solidifying, but Uneven,
Recovery |
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Japan: Is Deflation Finally Coming to an
End? |
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Emerging Asia: Prospects Are Bright but Can
Macroeconomic Policies Rise to the Challenges? |
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Latin America: Will the Economic Rebound
Be Used to Build Resilience? |
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Emerging Europe: Will the Recovery Be Used
to Address Fiscal Vulnerabilities? |
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Commonwealth of Independent States: Maintaining
Stability During a Commodity Boom |
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Africa: Can Improved Economic Performance
Be Sustained? |
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Middle East: Fiscal Consolidation Challenges
Ahead |
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Appendix 1.1 Commodity Markets |
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References |
Chapter II.
412 kb pdf file |
Three Current Policy Issues |
| The Global House Price Boom |
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Learning to Float: The Experience of Emerging Market Countries Since the Early 1990s |
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Has Fiscal Behavior Changed Under the European
Economic and Monetary Union? |
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Appendix 2.1 The Global House Boom: Sample
Composition, Data Sources, Methods, and Results |
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Appendix 2.2 Learning to Float: Methodology and Data |
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Appendix 2.3 Monetary Policy Rules for the
Euro Area |
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Appendix 2.4 Estimating Fiscal Reaction Functions |
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References |
Chapter III.
282 kb pdf file |
How Will Demographic Change Affect the
Global Economy? |
| Changing Structure of the World's Population |
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Economic Impact of Demographic Change |
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Policies to Meet the Challenges of Global
Demographic Change |
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Appendix 3.1 Demographic Change and the Global
Economy: Data and Modeling Strategy |
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References |
Annex: Summing Up by the Acting
Chair
26 kb pdf file |
Statitistical Appendix
294 kb pdf file |
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Assumptions |
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What's New |
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Data and Conventions |
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Classifications of Countries |
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List of Tables |
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Output (Tables 1-6) |
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Inflation (Tables 7-11) |
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Financial Policies (Tables 12-19) |
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Foreign Trade (Tables 20-24) |
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Current Account Transactions (Tables 25-31) |
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Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables 32-36) |
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External Debt and Debt Service (Tables 37-42) |
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Flow of Funds (Table 43) |
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Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables 44-45) |
World Economic Outlook and Staff
Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics
50 kb pdf file |
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Boxes |
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1.1 |
Is Global Inflation Coming Back? |
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1.2 |
What are the Risks of Slower Growth in China? |
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1.3 |
Is the Doha Round Back on Track? |
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1.4 |
Regional Trade Agreements and Integration:
The Experience
with NAFTA |
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1.5 |
Bringing Small Entrepreneurs into the Formal Economy |
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1.6 |
Governance Challenges and Progress in Sub-Saharan Africa |
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2.1 |
What Explains the Recent Run-Up in House
Prices? |
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2.2 |
Adjustable- or Fixed-Rate Mortgages: What
Influences Country's Choices? |
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2.3 |
How Did Chile, India, and Brazil Learn to
Float? |
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2.4 |
Foreign Exchange Market Development and Intervention |
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2.5 |
Trade and Financial Integration in Europe:
Five Years After the Euro's Introduction |
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3.1 |
Demographic Projections: Methodologies and
Uncertainties |
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3.2 |
How Will Population Aging Affect Financial
Markets? |
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3.3 |
HIV/AIDS: Demographic, Economic, and Fiscal
Consequences |
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3.4 |
Implications of Demographic Change for Health
Care Systems |
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3.5 |
Impact of Aging on Public Pension Plans |
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A1 |
Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the
Projections for Selected Advanced Economies |
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Tables |
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1.1 |
Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections |
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1.2 |
Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment |
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1.3 |
Emerging Market and Developing Countries: Net Capital
Flows |
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1.4 |
Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances
and Debt |
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1.5 |
Selected Economies: Current Account Positions |
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1.6 |
Selected Asian Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices,
and Current Account Balance |
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1.7 |
Selected Western Hemisphere Countries: Real GDP, Consumer
Prices, and Current Account Balance |
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1.8 |
Emerging Europe: Real GDP, Consumer Prices,
and Current Account Balance |
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1.9 |
Commonwealth of Independent States: Real GDP, Consumer
Prices, and Current Account Balance |
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1.10 |
Selected African Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices,
and Current Account Balance |
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1.11 |
Selected Middle Eastern Countries: Real GDP, Consumer
Prices, and Current Account Balance |
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1.12 |
Commodity Consumption in Selected Countries |
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1.13 |
Nonenergy Commodity Prices |
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1.14 |
Impact in a Permanent US$5 a Barrel Increase in Crude
Oil Prices After One Year |
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1.15 |
Impact of Nominal Oil Price Hikes |
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1.16 |
Movements in the IMF Commodity Price Index |
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1.17 |
Trade Gains and Losses from Commodity Price Movements:
Emerging Market and Developing Countries |
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2.1 |
Housing Indicators in Some Industrial Countries |
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2.2 |
Emerging Market Countries' Transitions to
More Flexible Regimes, 1992-2002 |
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2.3 |
Euro Area: Real Short-Term Interest Rates
and Competitiveness |
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2.4 |
Discretionary Fiscal Policies: Stabilizing
or Destabilizing? |
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2.5 |
Variance Decomposition for Selected Countries |
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2.6 |
Monetary Gaps: Descriptive Statistics |
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2.7 |
Country-Specific Estimates of Fiscal Reaction
Functions |
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2.8 |
Fiscal Authorities' Behavior in the Euro
Area: Panel Analysis, 1982-2003 |
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2.9 |
Fiscal Authorities' Behavior in the Euro
Area: Panel Analysis, 1982-2003 |
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2.10 |
Fiscal Authorities' Behavior in the Euro
Area: Panel Analysis, 1982-2003 |
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3.1 |
Macroeconomic Impact of Demographic Changes:
Panel Instrumental Variable Regressions |
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3.2 |
Selected Summary Statistics, 1960-2000 |
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3.3 |
Main Characteristics of the Multiple-Generations
Models |
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3.4 |
INGENUE Model: Countries Composing Each Demographic
Zone |
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Figures |
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1.1 |
Global Indicators |
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1.2 |
Current and Forward-Looking Indicators |
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1.3 |
Trade Gains and Losses from Commodity Price Movements
Betweeen 2003 and 2004 |
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1.4 |
Developments in Mature Financial Markets |
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1.5 |
Emerging Market Financial Conditions |
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1.6 |
Global Exchange Rate Developments |
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1.7 |
Global Outlook |
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1.8 |
Fiscal and Monetary Easing in the Major Advanced Countries |
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1.9 |
Fiscal Vulnerability Indicators |
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1.10 |
United States: House Prices |
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1.11 |
United States: Interest Rates |
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1.12 |
European Union: Fiscal Challenges |
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1.13 |
Japan: The End of Deflation? |
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1.14 |
Emerging Asia: Current Account Surpluses Remain Strong |
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1.15 |
Latin America: Trade Share Rising, But Scope for Further
Reduction in Restrictiveness |
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1.16 |
How Close Are the New EU Members to the Convergence Criteria
for EMU Membership? |
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1.17 |
CIS: Riding on the Crest of a Global Commodity Boom |
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1.18 |
Sub-Saharan Africa: Net Impact of Commodity Price Changes
on Trade Balances |
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1.19 |
Middle East: Resisting Pressure to Spend Higher Oil Revenue |
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1.20 |
Oil Prices, Futures, and Production |
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1.21 |
OPEC Spare Capacity, Commercial Inventories, and Speculative
Activity |
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1.22 |
Global Production Capacity and Real Average Petroleum
Spot Price |
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1.23 |
Nonenergy Commodities |
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1.24 |
Semiconductor Market |
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2.1 |
Average Growth and Volatility of House Prices
in Industrial Countries |
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2.2 |
Growth and Volatility of House Prices in
Industrial Countries |
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2.3 |
Co-movement Between Macroeconomic Aggregates
and House Prices |
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2.4 |
Is There International Synchronization? |
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2.5 |
Variance Decomposition of House Prices |
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2.6 |
What Explains House Price Fluctuations? |
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2.7 |
How Would House Prices React to an Increase
in Interest Rates? |
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2.8 |
Increasing Exchange Rate Flexibility in Emerging
Markets |
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2.9 |
Macroeconomic Indicators |
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2.10 |
Real Effective Exchange Rate Overvaluation |
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2.11 |
Volatility of Exchange Rate |
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2.12 |
Indicators of External Debt |
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2.13 |
Central Bank Independence in Emerging Markets |
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2.14 |
Exchange Rate Regimes of Emerging Markets
and Inflation Targeting, 2003 |
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2.15 |
Indicators of Financial Sector Supervision
and Development |
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2.16 |
Financial Policy Frameworks, 2002 |
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2.17 |
Indicators of Financial Sector Liberalization |
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2.18 |
Cross-Country Dispersion of Selected Economic
Indicators |
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2.19 |
Real Interest Rates and Competitiveness |
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2.20 |
Monetary Policy Rules for Selected Euro Area
Economies |
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2.21 |
Fiscal Behavior in the Euro Area |
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2.22 |
Procyclicality and Output Volatility |
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2.23 |
Fiscal Stance in the Euro Area, 1982-2003 |
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2.24 |
Procyclicality and Deficit Bias, 1975-2003 |
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2.25 |
Procyclicality in Good and Bad Times |
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2.26 |
Interest Payments: Where Did the Savings
Go? |
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2.27 |
Countries at Odds with the Stability and
Growth Pact |
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3.1 |
Global Demographic Transition, 1700-2050 |
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3.2 |
Key Demographic Trends, 1950-2050 |
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3.3 |
Where the World's Population Lives |
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3.4 |
Population Structures, 1950-2050 |
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3.5 |
Uncertainty in Population Projections |
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3.6 |
Per Capita Growth and Working-Age Population |
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3.7 |
Impact of Demographic Change in Growth and
Current Account Balances, 2000-50 |
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3.8 |
Implications of Projected Demographic Change
in the INGENUE Model |
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3.9 |
Some Policy Responses to a Declining Labor
Force in Advanced Economies |
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3.10 |
Life Expectancy and Age of Retirement for
Males in Selected Advanced Economies |
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3.11 |
Impact of Pension Reforms in Europe in the
INGENUE Model |
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3.12 |
The Last Train for Pension Reform Departs
in... |
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3.13 |
Implications of Labor and Capital Mobility
for Per Capita Consumption, 2000-60 |
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3.14 |
Implications of a 1 Percentage Point Decline
in Developing Country Risk Premium in the MSG3 |
