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World Economic Outlook World Economic and Financial Surveys

World Economic Outlook

Building Institutions

September 2005

Ordering Information

The World Economic Outlook presents the IMF staff's analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF's global surveillance activities.

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Contents

208 kb Assumptions and Conventions
  Preface
  Foreword
 
Chapter I. Economic Prospects and Policy Issues
697 kb United States and Canada: Strong U.S. Growth, but Rising Housing Market Risks
  Western Europe: The Recovery Continues to Struggle
  Japan: A Strong Rebound, but Reforms Need to Continue
  Emerging Asia and the Pacific: Balanced, Twin-Engined Growth Needed
  Latin America: Will This Be a More Resilient Expansion?
  Emerging Europe: Is Rapid Credit Growth a Cause for Concern?
  Commonwealth of Independent States: Favorable Short-Term Outlook Masks Medium-Term Investment Risks
  Africa: How Can the Benefits of a Rising Working Age Population be Maximized?
  The Middle East: Managing Booming Oil Exports
  Appendix 1.1 Recent Market Developments in Commodity Markets
  Appendix 1.2 How Will Global Imbalances Adjust?
  References
 
Chapter II. Global Imbalances: A Saving and Investment Perspective
286 kb Global Saving and Investment: The Current State of Play
  What Drives Saving, Investment, and the Current Account?
  How Can Existing Global Current Account Imbalances Be Reduced?
  Appendix 2.1. Sample Composition, Data Sources, Methods, and Results
  References
 
Chapter III. Building Institutions
1,700 kb The Role of Institutions
  When Do Institutions Change?
  What Changes Institutions?
  Institutions and the External Environment
  Conclusions
  Appendix 3.1. Sample Composition, Data Sources, and Methods
  References
 
Chapter IV. Does Inflation Targeting Work in Emerging Markets?
219 kb What Is Inflation Targeting and Why Does Inflation Targeting Matter?
  Inflation Targeting: An Assessment of the Impact
  Do “Preconditions” Need to Be Met Before the Adoption of Inflation Targeting?
  Conclusion
  Appendix 4.1. Details on Econometric Specifications and on Data from the Survey on Preconditions and Current Conditions
  References
 
82 kb Annex: Summing Up by the Acting Chair
 
Statistical Appendix
356 kb Assumptions
  What's New
  Data and Conventions
  Classification of Countries
List of Tables
Output (Tables 1–6)
  Inflation (Tables 7–11)
  Financial Policies (Tables 12–19)
  Foreign Trade (Tables 20–24)
  Current Account Transactions (Tables 25–31)
  Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables 32–36)
  External Debt and Debt Service (Tables 37–42)
  Flow of Funds (Table 43)
  Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables 44–45)
 
109 kb World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics
 
                     Chapter I Boxes
Chart Data 1.1 Is Public Debt in Emerging Markets Still Too High?
Chart Data 1.2 Why is the U.S. International Income Account Still in the Black, and Will it Last?
Chart Data 1.3 What Explains Divergent External Sector Performance in the Euro Area
Chart Data 1.4 Is India Becoming an Engine for Global Growth?
Chart Data 1.5 Pressures Mount for African Cotton Producers
    1.6 Policies to Reduce Global Imbalances
 
                      Chapter II Boxes
Chart Data 2.1 Saving and Investment in China
2.2 Return on Investment in Industrial and Developing Countries
Chart Data 2.3 Impact of Demographic Change on Saving, Investment, and Current Account Balances
Chart Data 2.4 Is Investment in Emerging Asia Too Low?
Chart Data    
 
                     Chapter III Boxes
3.1 Developing Institutions to Reflect Local Conditions: The Example of Ownership Transformation in China Versus Central and Eastern Europe
3.2 The Use of Specific Levers to Reduce Corruption
Chart Data 3.3 Examining the Impact of Aid and Resource Rents on Institutions
 
                    Chapter IV Boxes
Chart Data 4.1 A Closer Look at Inflation Targeting Alternatives: Money and Exchange Rate Targets
Chart Data    
Chart Data 4.2 Long-Term Inflation Expectations and Credibility
A1 Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Economies
 
Chapter Tables
1.1 Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
1.2 Emerging Market and Developing Countries: Net Capital Flows
1.3 Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
1.4 Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment
1.5 Selected Economies: Current Account Positions
1.6 Selected Asian Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
1.7 Selected Western Hemisphere Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
1.8 Emerging Europe: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
1.9 Commonwealth of Independent States: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
1.10 Selected African Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
1.11 Selected Middle Eastern Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
1.12 Global Oil Demand by Region
1.13 Causality Tests: Spot Price, Long-Term Futures Prices and Net Long Position
1.14 Nonenergy Commodity Prices
2.1 Average Correlations of Saving and Investment Ratios
2.2 Global Saving and Investment: Panel Regression
2.3 Variance Decomposition
2.4 Average Trade by Region: 1970–2004
2.5 Variance Decomposition for Country Regions
2.6 Investment and Capital Ratios for Emerging Asia
3.1 Frequency of Institutional Transitions
3.2 Institutional Transitions: Probit Estimates
3.3 Institutional Quality: Cross-Sectional and Panel IV Estimates
3.4 List of Institutional Transitions, 1970–2004
4.1 Inflation Targeters
4.2 Inflation Outcomes Relative to Target
4.3 Baseline Results
4.4 Baseline Model Robustness Checks Using Different Classifications
4.5 Baseline Model Robustness Checks by Date and Control Variables
4.6 Baseline Model Robustness Checks: Additional Performance Indicators
4.7 Baseline Model Robustness Checks: Preconditions and Current Conditions
 
Chapter I Charts
Chart Data 1.1 Global Indicators
Chart Data 1.2 Current and Forward-Looking Indicators
Chart Data 1.3 Global Exchange Rate Developments
Chart Data 1.4 Global Inflation
Chart Data 1.5 Developments in Mature Financial Markets
Chart Data 1.6 Emerging Market Financial Conditions
Chart Data 1.7 Savings Glut or Investment Drought?
Chart Data 1.8 Global Outlook
Chart Data 1.9 Fiscal and Monetary Policies in the Major Advanced Countries
Chart Data 1.10 Trade Gains and Losses from Commodity Price Movements Relative to 2002
Chart Data 1.11 United States: House Prices and Household Demand
Chart Data 1.12 Euro Area: Growth Divergences Since EMU
Chart Data 1.13 Europe: Why Has per Capita GDP Stagnated Relative to the United States?
Chart Data 1.14 Japan: Indicators of Bank and Corporate Sector Financial Health
Chart Data 1.15 Emerging Asia: Growth, Reserves, and Exchange Rate Flexibility
Chart Data 1.16 Latin America: An Anatomy of Recent Expansions
Chart Data 1.17 Emerging Europe: Is Strong Credit Growth a Cause for Concern?
Chart Data 1.18 CIS: Investment, Growth, and Structural Reforms
Chart Data 1.19 Sub-Saharan Africa: Maximizing the Benefits of the Demographic Dividend
Chart Data 1.20 Middle East: Oil Shocks and Macroeconomic Management
Chart Data 1.21 Oil Prices, Futures, and Production
Chart Data 1.22 Commercial Oil Inventories, World Refinery Capacity, and Option Prices
Chart Data 1.23 Nonenergy Commodities
Chart Data 1.24 Semiconductor Market
Chart Data 1.25 Current Account Balances
Chart Data 1.26 Real Effective Exchange Rates
Chart Data 1.27 Net Foreign Assets
Chart Data 1.28 United States: Baseline Scenario
Chart Data 1.29 Emerging Asia: Baseline Scenario
Chart Data 1.30 Japan and Euro Area: Baseline Scenario
Chart Data 1.31 Disruptive Adjustment
Chart Data 1.32 Greater Exchange Rate Flexibility in Emerging Asia
Chart Data 1.33 Incremental Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in the United States
Chart Data 1.34 Incremental Effects of Competition-Friendly Policies in Europe and Japan
Chart Data 1.35 Scenarios for Global Adjustments
 
Chapter II Charts
Chart Data 2.1 Global Saving, Investment, and Current Accounts
Chart Data 2.2 Saving and Investment in the Industrial Countries
Chart Data 2.3 Saving Trends Across Regions
Chart Data 2.4 Saving and Investment in the Emerging Market and Oil-Producing Economies
Chart Data 2.5 Explaining Saving and Investment Rate Movements Between 1997 and 2004
Chart Data 2.6 Saving: Global Factor
Chart Data 2.7 Investment: Global Factor
Chart Data 2.8 Current Account: Global Factor
Chart Data 2.9 How Would the Current Account React to an Increase in the U.S. Saving Ratio?
Chart Data 2.10 How Would Current Account Imbalances React to Changes in the Investment Rate in Asia?
Chart Data 2.11 How Would the Current Account React to Changes in Japan's GDP Growth?
Chart Data 2.12 How Would the Current Account React to Changes in the U.S. Real Interest Rate?
 
Chapter III Charts
Chart Data 3.1 Institutions and Income Per Capita: Impact of Raising Regional Institutional Quality
Chart Data 3.2 Developing Economies: Recent Developments in Institutional Quality by Region
Chart Data 3.3 Evolution of Economic Institutions
Chart Data 3.4 Developing Economies: Impact of Economic Transitions on Output Growth, Private Investment, and Productivity Growth
Chart Data 3.5 Number of Institutional Transitions by Region
Chart Data 3.6 Institutional Transitions by Region
Chart Data 3.7 Openness and Economic Transitions
Chart Data 3.8 Institutional Quality Relative to the Group of Advanced Countries
Chart Data 3.9 Openness, Education, Accountability, and Quality of Economic Institutions
Chart Data 3.10 Evolution of Institutions in the European Union and EU Accession Candidates
Chart Data 3.11 Aid Dependency Ratios in Sub-Saharan Africa under the Millennium Development Goals
Chart Data 3.12 Uganda: Leakage of Schooling Grants
Chart Data 3.13 Accountability and Improvements in Corruption
 
Chapter IV Charts
Chart Data 4.1 Inflation, 1990–2004
Chart Data 4.2 Inflation and Growth Performance, 1985–2004
Chart Data 4.3 Initial Conditions Prior to Adopting Inflation Targeting