New Data on Global Debt

IMF Blog, January 2, 2019

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The IMF’s Global Debt Database now compiles data on public and private debt for 190 countries, dating back to 1950, and includes the latest numbers for 2017.
The data are free and publicly available to support transparency and better public policy.

Global debt has reached an all-time high of $184 trillion in nominal terms, the equivalent of 225 percent of GDP in 2017.
On average, the world’s debt now exceeds $86,000 in per capita terms, which is more than 2½ times the average income per-capita.
The top three borrowers in the world—the United States, China, and Japan—account for more than half of global debt, exceeding their share of global output.
The private sector’s debt has tripled since 1950 and is the driving force behind global debt.
Since the global financial crisis, private debt in emerging markets, led by China, has risen and overtaken private debt in advanced economies.
Private debt has remained very low in low-income developing countries.
Global public debt declined up to the mid-1970s but has increased since then, led by advanced economies and, more recently, followed by emerging and low-income developing countries.

Compared to the previous peak in 2009, the world is now more than 11 percentage points of GDP deeper in debt.
In 2017 the global debt ratio fell by close to 1½ percent of GDP compared to a year earlier.
The last similar decline occurred in 2010, but that decline proved short-lived; it is unclear whether the 2017 decline is a hiatus or the start of a longer deleveraging process.
New country data available later in 2019 were expected to provide further information on the global debt picture.

Advanced economies:
- There has been a retrenchment in debt build-up among advanced economies.
- Private debt, although marginally on the rise, is well below its peak.
- Public debt in advanced economies experienced a healthy decline of close to 2½ percent of GDP in 2017.
- To find a similar reduction in public debt we need to go back a decade, when global growth was some 1¾ percentage points higher than today.
Emerging market economies:
- These countries continued to borrow in 2017, although at a much slower rate.
- In China the pace of private debt accumulation, although still high, decelerated significantly.
Low-income developing countries:
- Public debt continued to grow in 2017 and, in some cases, reached levels close to those seen when countries sought debt relief.

With financial conditions tightening in many countries, including rising interest rates, prospects for bringing debt down remain uncertain.
The high levels of corporate and government debt built up over years of easy global financial conditions constitute a potential fault line.
Transparency and comprehensive data (public and private) across countries are emphasized as tools to inform better public policy.
The IMF planned to release the next Fiscal Monitor in April 2019 with the latest facts about public finances, including debt, to shed more light and offer policy advice for countries.

Source: IMF blog post “New Data on Global Debt” by Samba Mbaye and Marialuz Moreno Badia, January 2, 2019.