Global Shipping Costs Are Moderating, But Pressures Remain

IMF Blog, January 13, 2022

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Container rates have "more than quadrupled since the start of the pandemic," with some of the biggest gains concentrated "in the first three quarters of last year."
Global container rates began to pull back from their record in September and have since declined by 16 percent, "mostly due to falling rates for trans-Pacific eastbound routes, the main sea link from China to the United States."
The traditional peak shipping season is "typically from August to October."
Publication date and author: Parisa Kamali, January 13, 2022.

Demand-side: Consumers "unleashed pent-up savings to buy new merchandise" while the pandemic continued to snarl supply chains.
Supply-side constraints and disruptions:
- Lockdowns, labor shortages, and strains on logistics networks led to shipping-cost increases and significantly lengthened delivery times, though those pressures are easing.
- Backlogs and port delays.
- Labor shortages in related occupations.
- Supply chain disruptions moving inland.
- Shipping-industry challenges such as slow capacity growth and consolidation that concentrated the market power of a few carriers.
Policy action: "The US recently ordered some ports to expand operating hours and boost efficiency to reduce congestion and ease supply bottlenecks."

Although rates have subsided, they "may remain elevated through the end of the year."
If the pandemic is controlled in the future, demand for tradable goods "might gradually decline as some service-providing sectors, such as travel and hospitality, recover."
Price pass-through and sectoral effects:
- "Higher shipping costs and goods shortages are expected to boost merchandise prices."
- UNCTAD projects that "if freight rates remain elevated through 2023, global import price levels and consumer price levels could rise by 10.6% and 1.5%, respectively."
- Impact would be "disproportionately larger for small, developing islands which heavily rely on imports that arrive by sea."
- "Higher freight rates will also result in larger increases in the final price of low-value-added products." Smaller developing economies that export many of these goods "could become less competitive and face difficulties with their economic recoveries."
- Final prices of products highly integrated into global value chains, such as "electronics and computers," will also be more affected by higher freight rates.

Returning to pre-pandemic shipping rates will require:
- Greater investment in infrastructure.
- Digitalization in the freight industry.
- Implementation of trade facilitation measures.

Source: IMF Blog — "Global Shipping Costs Are Moderating, But Pressures Remain" (Parisa Kamali, January 13, 2022).