IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation, Third Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility with Morocco

IMF News, March 18, 2025

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IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation, Third Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility with Morocco

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• Published: March 18, 2025

Executive Board action and financing

• The Executive Board concluded the 2025 Article IV consultation with Morocco and completed the Third Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) arrangement, which was approved in September 2023.
• Completion of the Third Review allows the authorities to draw SDR 375 million (about US$ 496 million), bringing total disbursement under the RSF arrangement to SDR 937.5 million (about US$ 1.24 billion).
• Press Release No. 25/068.

Near-term economic performance and outlook

• 2024 real GDP growth: 3.2 percent (estimated), down from 3.4 percent in 2023.
• Growth drivers (near term): Robust domestic demand offsetting weak agricultural output amid drought.
• Medium-term outlook: GDP growth is expected to accelerate to about 3.7 percent over the next few years, driven by a new cycle of infrastructure projects and continued implementation of structural reforms.
• Real nonagricultural GDP growth (selected series in table): 7.0 (2020), 4.1 (2021), [value for 2022 not listed in source excerpt].
• Inflation:
  • Inflation (end of period): -0.3 (2020), 8.3 (2021), 0.7 (2022), 2.1 (2023), 2.2 (2024), 2.0 (2025).
  • Inflation (period average): 1.4 (2020), 6.6 (2021), 6.1 (2022), 0.9 (2023), 2.3 (2024).
• Monetary policy: Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) lowered the policy rate twice in June and December 2024 as supply-shock effects on inflation faded.
• Exchange rate: The dirham continued to move within the fluctuation band of ±5 percent.

External sector and reserves

• Current account (percent of GDP): -1.2 (2020), -2.3 (2021), -3.5 (2022), -0.6 (2023), -1.5 (2024), -2.0 (2025), -2.2 (2026), -2.6 (2027), -2.9 (2028).
• Exports of goods (U.S. dollar annual percent change): -4.4 (2020), 34.4 (2021), 15.1 (2022), -0.5 (2023), 8.6 (2024), 7.3 (2025), 6.8 (2026), 6.7 (2027).
• Imports of goods (U.S. dollar annual percent change): -12.0 (2020), 32.1 (2021), 21.9 (2022), 8.1 (2023), 7.5 (2024), 7.4 (2025), 6.4 (2026), 6.2 (2027).
• Merchandise trade balance (percent of GDP): -12.8 (2020), -14.0 (2021), -20.2 (2022), -17.3 (2023), -17.8 (2024), -18.0 (2025), -18.3 (2026), -18.6 (2027), -18.5 (2028).
• Gross reserves (months of imports): 7.2 (2020), 5.8 (2021), 5.4 (2022), 5.2 (2023).

Labor market and social indicators

• Unemployment (percent): 11.9 (2020), 12.3 (2021), 11.8 (2022), 13.0 (2023), 13.3 (2024), 13.2 (2025), 12.9 (2026), 12.4 (2027), 12.1 (2028).
• The elevated unemployment rate (about 13 percent) in 2024 mainly reflects job losses in the agricultural sector due to drought.
• The IMF highlights the need for a new strategy to sustainably boost jobs and improve market competition to address unemployment linked to job displacement in agriculture.

Fiscal developments and recommendations

• Central government fiscal outcomes (percent of GDP):
  • Revenue: 27.0 (2020), 25.1 (2021), 28.4 (2022), 27.9 (2023), 30.1 (2024), 30.4 (2025), 29.4 (2026), 28.1 (2027).
  • Expenditure: 34.1 (2020), 31.0 (2021), 33.8 (2022), 32.3 (2023), 34.2 (2024), 34.3 (2025), 32.8 (2026), 31.4 (2027), 31.3 (2028), 31.2 (2029).
  • Fiscal balance: -7.1 (2020), -5.9 (2021), -5.4 (2022), -4.5 (2023), -4.1 (2024), -3.9 (2025), -3.4 (2026), -3.3 (2027), -3.2 (2028), -3.1 (2029).
  • Public debt: 72.2 (2020), 69.4 (2021), 71.5 (2022), 69.5 (2023), 70.0 (2024), 68.9 (2025), 67.7 (2026), 66.8 (2027), 66.2 (2028), 65.6 (2029), 65.1 (2030).
• 2024 overall central government deficit closed at 4.1 percent of GDP, about 0.2 percent of GDP less than projected in the 2024 Budget, reflecting better-than-expected tax revenues more than offsetting higher spending.
• The reform of the Organic Budget Law envisages introduction of a new fiscal rule based on a medium-term debt anchor.
• Policy recommendations highlighted:
  • Save part of the revenue windfall from tax reforms to help strengthen fiscal buffers and protect against future shocks.
  • Implement a new strategy to sustainably boost jobs and improve market competition to mitigate unemployment from agricultural job displacement.

Structural reforms, state-owned enterprises, and RSF measures

• Structural reform progress:
  • Continued steps to restructure SOEs.
  • Operationalization of the Mohammed VI Investment Fund.
  • Implementation of the new Charter of Investment.
• RSF third and final review measures (six of seven measures implemented):
  • Measures aim to better protect underground water resources.
  • Prepare the ground for a change in tariffication of water.
  • Improve the regulatory setting of the electricity market to encourage private sector production of renewable energy.
  • Reinforce fiscal and financial systems’ resilience to climate change-related risks.
• A gradual introduction of the carbon tax was not implemented because authorities required further impact analysis and deeper consultations with public and private stakeholders.

Selected economic indicators and memorandum items (selected entries from IMF table)

• Population: 36.8 million; 2024
• Per capita GDP: $3,817; 2023
• Quota: SDR 894.4 million
• Poverty rate: 4.8 percent; 2013
• Main exports: automobiles, phosphate and derivatives; 2023
• Key export markets: France and Spain (42% of total trade); 2023
• Nominal GDP (in billions of U.S. dollars): 121 (2020), 142 (2021), 131 (2022), 144 (2023), 155 (2024), 166 (2025), 177 (2026), 188 (2027), 199 (2028), 212 (2029), 225 (2030).
• Net imports of energy products (in billions of U.S. dollars): -5.3 (2020), -8.4 (2021), -15.1 (2022), -11.5 (2023), -12.1 (2024), -12.3 (2025), -13.2 (2026), -13.7 (2027), -14.1 (2028).
• Local currency per U.S. dollar (period average): 9.5 (2020), 9.0 (2021), 10.2 (2022), 10.1 (2023), 9.9 (2024).

Source: IMF Executive Board Concluding Statement on the 2025 Article IV Consultation and Third Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility with Morocco.

References

• https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/bios/imfboard.jpg
• The Executive Board
• IMF Policy Advice -- A Factsheet
• IMF-World Bank Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries -- A Factsheet
• Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) -- A Factsheet
• Press Releases
• PRESS CENTER
• PR 23/327).
• https://www.imf.org/en/home