IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Guyana
IMF News, May 7, 2025
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Bibliographic details
- Published: May 7, 2025
Summary assessment
- The Executive Board concluded the Article IV Consultation with Guyana and welcomed Guyana’s rapid economic transformation supported by expanding oil production and strong non-oil output.
- Guyana attained high-income status and has a highly favorable economic outlook with risks assessed as broadly balanced.
- The Board commended the authorities’ commitment to balancing development needs with prudent macroeconomic and fiscal policies, including efforts to strengthen public financial management, governance, anti-corruption, official statistics, AML/CFT frameworks, fiscal transparency, and transparency in extractive industries.
2022–2024 performance and recent developments
- Real GDP averaged 47 percent per year since 2022, the highest real GDP growth rate in the world.
- Real oil GDP increased by nearly 58 percent in 2024.
- Real non-oil GDP expanded over 13 percent in 2024, reflecting broad-based performance across sectors.
- Inflation reached 2.9 percent by end-2024, up from 2 percent at end-2023, driven largely by higher food prices (affected by international food prices and earlier floods).
- The overall fiscal deficit widened from 5.1 percent of GDP (11.7 percent of non-oil GDP) in 2022 to 7.3 percent of GDP (21 percent of non-oil GDP) in 2024, reflecting a large increase in capital expenditure.
- Guyana’s current account surplus more than doubled in 2024, reaching about 24½ percent of GDP, driven by higher oil exports.
- By end-2024, gross international reserves surpassed US$1 billion.
- The Natural Resource Fund (NRF) accumulated over US$1.1 billion in 2024, reaching US$3.1 billion (over 12½ percent of GDP).
Outlook and projections
- The economy is expected to grow on average 14 percent per year over the next five years, driven by robust oil production and strong non-oil GDP growth.
- Real non-oil GDP growth is expected to average 6¾ percent over the medium term, about 3 percentage points higher than the pre-oil decade average.
- Inflation is projected to edge up to around 4 percent in 2025.
- The overall fiscal deficit and the current account surplus are expected to narrow in 2025.
- Over the medium term, continued expansion of oil production will further strengthen the external position, with substantial savings accumulation in the NRF.
Risks to the outlook
- Upside risks: additional oil discoveries; productivity-enhancing investments including to strengthen energy resilience; expanded construction activity supporting higher short-term non-oil GDP growth.
- Downside risks: overheating pressures that could lead to higher inflation and a real exchange rate appreciation beyond the level consistent with balanced expansion; commodity price volatility; trade policy and climate shocks that could adversely affect inflation and the macroeconomic outlook.
Executive Directors’ policy messages and recommendations
- Fiscal policy
- The current fiscal stance is appropriate given development needs.
- Authorities committed to eliminate the overall fiscal deficit over the medium term and further narrow the non-oil primary deficit to levels consistent with intergenerational equity and fiscal and macroeconomic sustainability.
- Need for a comprehensive medium-term fiscal framework with an explicit anchor and an operational target, along with regular assessments of expenditure related to reaching development objectives.
- Support for continued efforts to strengthen public financial management; low risk of debt distress noted given low public debt.
- Monetary and exchange rate policy
- Monetary policy stance considered appropriately tight to help contain inflation; further tightening may be needed if inflation risks escalate.
- Merit in enhancing the monetary policy toolkit and deepening financial markets to strengthen monetary policy transmission.
- Maintain consistent policies to support the stabilized exchange rate arrangement, which remains appropriate; assess whether transitioning to a more flexible exchange rate regime over the medium term could be beneficial as the economy transforms.
- Financial stability and supervision
- Support for maintaining financial stability and enhancing financial supervision, including monitoring sectoral lending exposures and related-party lending.
- Support for strengthening risk monitoring, the macroprudential framework, broadening regulatory coverage, and enhancing statistics on balance sheets and real estate prices.
- Structural and governance priorities
- Support for fostering inclusive growth and economic diversification, improving the business environment, strengthening climate and energy resilience, and enhancing labor market skills.
- Commended progress and supported continued efforts to strengthen governance, anti-corruption, official statistics, AML/CFT frameworks, fiscal transparency, and transparency in extractive industries in line with international standards.
Key statistics (selected, preserved exactly as in source)
- Population, 2023 (thousands): 814
- Life expectancy at birth (years), 2022: 66
- Under-five mortality rate (per 1,000 live births), 2023: 14
- Human Development Index rank, 2022: 95
- Real GDP (year-over-year percent change): 2023: 33.8; 2024: 43.6; 2025: 10.3
- Real non-oil GDP (year-over-year percent change): 2023: 12.3; 2024: 13.1; 2025: 12.9
- Real oil GDP (year-over-year percent change): 2023: 46.8; 2024: 57.7; 2025: 9.5
- Consumer prices (end of period): 2023: 2.0; 2024: 2.9; 2025: 4.2
Central Government (percent of non-oil GDP)
- Revenue: 2023: 39.3; 2024: 43.7; 2025: 49.9
- Grants: 2023: 0.2; 2024: 0.4
- Expenditure: 2023: 52.7; 2024: 64.9; 2025: 63.4
- Current: 2023: 25.1; 2024: 28.9; 2025: 30.5
- Capital: 2023: 27.7; 2024: 36.0; 2025: 32.9
- Overall balance (after grants): 2023: -13.3; 2024: -21.0; 2025: -13.2
- Non-oil primary balance (after grants): 2023: -26.2; 2024: -38.4; 2025: -37.5
(percent of GDP)
- [Row with values in source—preserved sequence] 17.0; 15.3; 18.6
- [Row with values in source—preserved sequence] 0.1; 22.8; 22.6; 23.7
- [Row with values in source—preserved sequence] 10.8; 10.1; 11.4
- [Row with values in source—preserved sequence] 12.0; 12.6; -5.7; -7.3; -4.9
- Total public sector gross debt: 2023: 26.7; 2024: 24.3; 2025: 28.0
- External: 2023: 10.5; 2024: 9.0; 2025: 13.6
- Domestic: 2023: 16.2; 2024: 15.2; 2025: 14.4
Money and Credit
- Broad money: 2023: 27.6; 2024: 25.3; 2025: 17.7
- Domestic credit of the banking system: 2023: 24.1; 2024: 39.7; 2025: 4.9
External Sector
- Current account balance (US$ million): 2023: 1,679.9; 2024: 6,067.9; 2025: 2,306.2
- Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2023: 9.9; 2024: 24.6; 2025: 8.9
- Gross official reserves (US$ million): 2023: 896.4; 2024: 1,010.1; 2025: 1,571.4
- Gross official reserves (months of imports): 2023: 5.3; 2024: 4.1; 2025: 6.1
- Crude oil production (million barrels): 2023: 142.3; 2024: 225.4; 2025: 246.0
Memorandum Items
- Nominal GDP (GY$ billion): 2023: 3,527.5; 2024: 5,141.3; 2025: 5,383.9
- Nominal non-oil GDP (GY$ billion): 2023: 1,524.6; 2024: 1,793.7; 2025: 2,010.7
- GDP per capita (US$): 2023: 21,307.2; 2024: 30,962.3; 2025: 32,326.3
- Guyana dollar/U.S. dollar (period average): 2023: 208.5
IMF Executive Board press release, May 7, 2025.