Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, November 2013 -- Table of Contents
Middle East and Central Asia, November 11, 2013
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- Published: November 11, 2013
- Series: Middle East and Central Asia
Near-term outlook and policy priorities for MENAP (Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan)
- The near-term economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region has weakened.
- In the oil-importing countries, many of which are Arab countries in transition, regional conflict, heightened political tensions, and delays in reforms continue to weigh on growth.
- Immediate policy priorities:
- Restore confidence and create jobs.
- Make inroads into fiscal consolidation to restore debt sustainability and rebuild buffers.
- Embark on structural reforms needed to support private sector-led, job-intensive growth.
- For most oil-exporting countries:
- Continue to enjoy steady growth in the non-oil sector, supported in part by high levels of public spending.
- Headline growth has declined because of domestic oil supply disruptions and lower global demand.
- A recovery in oil production is expected to lift growth next year.
- Increased vulnerability to a sustained decline in oil prices and intergenerational equity considerations underscore the need to strengthen fiscal buffers.
- Key medium-term challenges: economic diversification and faster private-sector job-creation for nationals.
Outlook and recommendations for Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA)
- Economic activity in the Caucasus and Central Asia is expected to continue to expand rapidly.
- Growth drivers:
- Recovery in the hydrocarbon sector.
- Firm growth in domestic demand.
- Robust remittance inflows.
- Downside risks:
- Considerable downside risks stem in particular from slower-than-expected growth in Russia, an important trading partner and source of remittance inflows.
- Policy recommendations:
- Take advantage of favorable near-term economic conditions to rebuild fiscal policy buffers that were eroded after the global crisis.
- Set in motion a process of structural transformation into dynamic emerging economies.
Major chapters and thematic areas covered (high level)
- MENAP Region Highlights
- Chapter 1: MENAP Oil Exporters
- Growth Outlook Defined by Volatile Oil Production
- A Reduction in Oil Revenues Is a Key Risk
- Fiscal Space and Intergenerational Equity
- Stepped-up Policy Action Is Needed for Growth and Job Creation
- Chapter 2: MENAP Oil Importers
- Tension and Conflict Impair Economic Activity
- Downside Risks Are Significant
- External and Fiscal Positions Are Highly Vulnerable
- Medium-Term Growth Prospects Are Weak
- A Package of Reforms and External Financing Is Needed
- Getting the Pace and Composition of Fiscal Consolidation Right
- Where Conditions Allow, Monetary Policy Should Be Supportive
- Structural Policies to Raise Growth Potential
- International Support
- Chapter 3: Caucasus and Central Asia
- Commodities, Remittances Support Rapid Economic Expansion
- Risks to the Near-Term Outlook Are Tilted to the Downside
- Inflation Stays Largely within a Comfortable Range
- Slowly Recuperating Financial Sector Needs Strong Oversight
- External Positions Call for More Exchange Rate Flexibility
- Fiscal Consolidation Is Needed to Increase Buffers and Stabilize Debt
- Toward Becoming Vibrant Emerging Markets
Annexes and cross-cutting analysis
- Annex 1. Prospects for the Global Oil Market
- Annex 2. International Linkages and Spillovers for MENAP and CCA
- Moderate Yet Growing Linkages to the Rest of the World
- Increasing Synchrony of Output Cycles
- Lower-than-Anticipated Growth in Emerging Markets Is an Important Risk
- Slowdown in the Euro Area Would Mainly Affect the Maghreb
- Effects of Tighter Global Financial Conditions Should Be Manageable
- Annex 3. Anchoring Fiscal Policy in Oil-Exporting Countries
- The Role of Fiscal Policy for MENAP and CCA Oil Exporters
- Annex 4. Minimizing the Impact of Fiscal Consolidation on Growth, and Enhancing Equity
- Mobilizing Tax Revenues
- Reorienting Spending
- Supporting Measures and Policies
Key analytical emphases, boxes, and figures (selected)
- Boxes address topics including:
- Competitiveness and Labor Productivity in MENAP and CCA.
- Role of Financial Development in Promoting Economic Growth and Reducing Income Inequality and Poverty in MENA and CCA.
- Female Labor Force Participation in MENAP.
- The Syrian Conflict and Its Regional Ramifications.
- MENAP Oil Importers: Weaker Growth Scenario.
- Subsidy Reform in MENA: Recent Progress and Challenges Ahead.
- Figures highlight:
- Crude Oil Production to Drive Recovery in 2014.
- Oil GDP Pauses in 2013; Non-Oil GDP Slowing but Steady.
- Fiscal Balances Are Falling and Vulnerable to Oil Prices.
- Public Sector Wages and Salaries Have Outpaced Revenues.
- Fiscal and External Breakeven Prices Are High.
- Current Account Balances Are Falling.
- Non-Oil Total Factor Productivity Growth Is Mostly Negative.
- GCC Labor Markets Are Segmented.
- Real GDP Growth Forecasts Revised Downward for some oil-importing countries.
- Statistical and sectoral indicators include analyses of:
- Private Sector Credit, Inflation patterns (GCC moderate; high in Iran), reserve coverage, public debt, external financing needs, nonperforming loans, and sovereign bond spreads.
International Monetary Fund
Content in this bundle
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- أضواء على أهم الأحداث في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان - نوفمبر 2013
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- منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا وباكستان وأفغانستان (MENAP): أبرز ما ورد
- 高加索和中亚地区要点
- 1. Pays exportateurs de pétrole de la région
- Région MOANAP : Principaux points
- Région MOANAP : Principaux points
- CCA Region Highlights
- 3. Caucasus and Central Asia: Need to Increase Resilience and Accelerate Reforms
- Regional Economic Outlook — Caucasus and Central Asia — October 25, 2013
- MENAP Region Highlights
- 1. MENAP Oil Exporters: Heightened Risks to Oil and Fiscal Positions
- 2. MENAP Oil Importers: Complex Political Dynamics and Security Challenges
- menapst1113pdf
- mreo1113pdf
- mreo1113ppdf
- Основные положения по региону КЦА
- Перспективы развития региональной экономики Кавказ и Центральная Азия (25 октября 2013 года)
- cca1013rpdf
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