IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) - Crisis and Recovery, April 2009

World Economic Outlook, April 16, 2009

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IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) - Crisis and Recovery, April 2009

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Bibliographic details

• Published: April 16, 2009
• Series: World Economic Outlook

Scope and purpose

• The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents IMF staff's analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries.
• Focuses on major economic policy issues and on the analysis of economic developments and prospects.
• Usually prepared twice a year as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee and forms the main instrument of the IMF's global surveillance activities.
• Download Full Text (4.5 MB)

Main report structure (chapters and annexes)

• Assumptions and Conventions; Preface; Joint Foreword to World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report; Executive Summary.
• Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies
  • Subtopics: How Did Things Get So Bad, So Fast?; Short-Term Prospects Are Precarious; Gauging Risks for Deflation; Sovereigns under Stress; Exploring the Downside; Medium-Term Prospects beyond the Crisis; Policies to End the Crisis while Paving the Way to Sustained Recovery.
  • Appendices: Commodity Market Developments and Prospects; Fan Chart for Global Growth; Assumptions behind the Downside Scenario.
• Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives
  • Regional focuses include: United States; Asia; Europe; CIS Economies; Other Advanced Economies; Latin America and the Caribbean; Middle Eastern Economies; Africa.
  • Supplemental Tables: Key Macroeconomic Projects, by Region (online only).
• Chapter 3. From Recession to Recovery: How Soon and How Strong?
  • Subtopics: Business Cycles in the Advanced Economies; Does the Cause of a Downturn Affect the Shape of the Cycle?; Can Policies Play a Useful Countercyclical Role?; Lessons for the Current Recession and Prospects for Recovery.
  • Appendix 3.1. Data Sources and Methodologies.
• Chapter 4. How Linkages Fuel the Fire: The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies
  • Subtopics: Measuring Financial Stress; Links between Advanced and Emerging Economies; The Transmission of Financial Stress: An Overall Analysis; Lessons from Previous Advanced Economy Banking Crises; Implications for the Current Crisis; Which Policies Can Help?
  • Appendices: A Financial Stress Index for Emerging Economies; Financial Stress in Emerging Economies: Econometric Analysis.
• Annex: IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, April 2009.
• Statistical Appendix: Assumptions; What's New; Data and Conventions; Classification of Countries; General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification.
• Lists of Tables Part A and Part B covering Output, Inflation, Financial Policies, Foreign Trade, Current Account Transactions, Balance of Payments and External Financing, Flow of Funds, Medium–Term Baseline Scenario, External Debt and Debt Service.

Key analytic topics and themes

• Global business cycles and synchronization of recessions.
• Assessment of deflation risks in the G3 economies.
• Transmission mechanisms of financial stress from advanced to emerging economies, including financial integration and exposures.
• Role of fiscal, monetary, and financial policies in exiting recessions and shaping recoveries.
• Commodity market developments and prospects, including oil, metals, energy, and major food crops.
• Vulnerabilities: household wealth, nonfinancial firms, and emerging-economy exposures.
• Scenarios and risks: Downside Scenario; Fan Chart for Global Growth; Balance of Risks Associated with Selected Risk Factors; Alternative Medium-Term Scenarios.

Data products, boxes, tables, and figures (selection)

• Boxes addressing topics such as Global Business Cycles; How Vulnerable Are Nonfinancial Firms?; Assessing Deflation Risks in the G3 Economies; Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis; Will Commodity Prices Rise Again when the Global Economy Recovers?
• Tables include: Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections; Comparison of Commodity Price Volatility; Global Oil Demand and Production by Region; Underlying World Merchandise Trade Flows; Factors Explaining the Additional Decline in Output Growth for 2009–10; Regional and country macroeconomic tables.
• Figures and indicators: Global Indicators; Developments in Mature Credit Markets; Emerging Market Conditions; Current and Forward-Looking Indicators; Global Inflation; Global Outlook; Potential Growth and the Output Gap; Risks to World GDP Growth; Downside Scenario; Net Capital Flows to Emerging and Developing Economies; General Government Fiscal Balances and Public Debt; Commodity and Petroleum Prices; World Oil Market Developments; Financial Stress Indices in Emerging Economies; Capital Flows to Emerging Economies; Sudden Stops and Activity.

Policy focus and recommendations (as emphasized in report structure)

• Policies to end the crisis while paving the way to sustained recovery, including coordinated macroeconomic policies and financial sector measures.
• Analysis of the impact of policies on the probability of exiting a recession and on the strength of recoveries.
• Examination of which policies can help emerging economies cope with transmitted financial stress from advanced economies.

IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) - Crisis and Recovery, April 2009 (web landing page).

Content in this bundle

• Sumapdf (PDF)
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• Box111pdf (PDF)
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• Box121pdf (PDF)
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• Forewordpdf (PDF)
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• Box111
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References

• World Economic Outlook Database
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• Archive of WEO Reports
• IMF Data Mapper®
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