World Economic Outlook, April 2025: A Critical Juncture amid Policy Shifts
World Economic Outlook, April 2025
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- World Economic Outlook, April 2025: A Critical Juncture amid Policy Shifts
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- Published: April 22, 2025
Overview
- The latest World Economic Outlook reports a slowdown in global growth as downside risks intensify.
- Governments worldwide are reordering policy priorities and uncertainties have climbed to new highs.
- Forecasts for global growth have been revised markedly down compared with the January 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, reflecting effective tariff rates at levels not seen in a century and a highly unpredictable environment.
- Global headline inflation is expected to decline at a slightly slower pace than what was expected in January.
- The estimates and projections in the April 2025 WEO Chapter 1 and Statistical Appendix are based on statistical information available through April 14, 2025, but may not reflect the latest published data in all cases.
Global prospects and downside risks (Chapter 1 highlights)
- Global growth is projected to decline after a period of steady but underwhelming performance, amid policy shifts and new uncertainties.
- Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside.
- Intensifying downside risks include:
- Escalating trade tensions and elevated policy-induced uncertainty.
- Divergent and swiftly changing policy positions or deteriorating sentiment that could lead to even tighter global financial conditions.
- Ratcheting up a trade war and heightened trade policy uncertainty that may further hinder both short-term and long-term growth prospects.
- Shifting policies that could lead to abrupt tightening of global financial conditions and capital outflows, particularly impacting emerging markets.
- More limited international development assistance that could push low-income countries deeper into debt and jeopardize living standards.
- At this critical juncture, policies need to be calibrated to foster international cooperation while ensuring internal economic stability, thereby helping reduce global imbalances.
Demographics and the "silver economy" (Chapter 2 highlights)
- Chapter 2: The Rise of the Silver Economy: Global Implications of Population Aging explores healthy aging and its economic effects.
- Key findings:
- Population aging poses challenges such as slower growth and increased fiscal pressures.
- Healthier aging trends offer a silver lining by boosting labor force participation, extending working lives, and enhancing productivity.
- Policy implications and levers:
- Implement policies that support healthy aging.
- Increase labor force participation among older individuals.
- Close gender gaps in the workforce to harness the potential of the silver economy.
- These strategies can help boost growth and rebuild fiscal buffers amid demographic headwinds.
Migration, refugees, and integration (Chapter 3 highlights)
- Chapter 3: Journeys and Junctions: Spillovers from Migration and Refugee Policies examines how migrant and refugee policies alter flows and outcomes.
- Key points:
- Changes in the stringency of migrant and refugee policies can alter the journeys and legal pathways people choose.
- Stricter policies can deflect flows to new destinations, generating short-term strains on local services but potential long-term benefits.
- Costs are likely to be more severe where integration challenges are larger and skills are not well matched with local labor market needs—particularly in emerging market and developing economies.
- Benefits can materialize sooner by boosting infrastructure investment and promoting private sector development.
- International cooperation can help by more evenly distributing short-term costs across economies.
Policy recommendations and priorities
- Promote a stable and predictable trade environment and facilitate international cooperation to support a more resilient global economy.
- Calibrate policies to rebalance growth-inflation trade-offs, rebuild buffers, and reinvigorate medium-term growth to reduce both internal and external imbalances.
- Implement policies that promote healthy aging and enhance labor force participation among older individuals and women to stimulate growth and ease fiscal pressures (as discussed in Chapter 2).
- Foster productivity growth by better integrating migrants and refugees and mitigating skill mismatches (as detailed in Chapter 3).
- Address policy gaps and structural imbalances at home while working constructively at the international level to secure internal and external economic stability.
Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2025: A Critical Juncture amid Policy Shifts (statistical information through April 14, 2025).
Content in this bundle
- CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL PROSPECTS AND POLICIES
- ch1
- ch1onlineannex — Section 1 and Section 2
- ch2
- Online Annex 2.2. Healthy Aging
- ch3
- CHAPTER 3 ONLINE ANNEX: JOURNEYS AND JUNCTIONS — SPILLOVERS FROM MIGRATION AND REFUGEE POLICIES
- COMMODITy SPECIAL FEATURE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS AND ThE IMPACT OF AI ON ENERGy DEMAND
- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- FOREWORD
- statsappendix
- tablea
- tableb
- World Economic Outlook: A Critical Juncture Amid Policy Shifts — April 2025 (selected text)