Modeling Inflation in Chad
IMF Working Papers, March 1, 2011
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- Modeling Inflation in Chad
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Tidiane Kinda
- Published: March 1, 2011
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455221011.001
Summary
- Examines determinants of inflation in Chad using quarterly data from 1983:Q1 to 2009:Q3.
- Analysis is based on a single-equation model, completed by a structural vector auto regression model to capture inflation persistence.
- Main determinants identified: rainfall, foreign prices, exchange rate movements, and public spending.
- Persistence of effects:
- Rainfall shocks: persist during six quarters.
- Changes in foreign prices: persist during six quarters.
- Changes in public spending: affect inflation during three quarters.
- Changes in the nominal exchange rate: affect inflation during four quarters.
Methodology
- Data frequency and sample: quarterly data from 1983:Q1 to 2009:Q3.
- Models used:
- Single-equation model to identify determinants.
- Structural vector auto regression (SVAR) model to capture inflation persistence.
Key Findings and Statistics
- Determinants of inflation: rainfall; foreign prices; exchange rate movements; public spending.
- Persistence durations:
- Rainfall shocks — six quarters.
- Foreign prices — six quarters.
- Public spending — three quarters.
- Nominal exchange rate — four quarters.
Content in this bundle
- Modeling Inflation in Chad; by Tidiane Kinda; IMF Working Paper 11/57; March 1, 2011