Reassessing GDP Growth in Countries with Statistical Shortcomings - A Case Study on Turkmenistan

IMF Working Papers, September 29, 2023

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Reliable national accounts are essential for proper economic analyses and informed policymaking by national authorities as well as other stakeholders.
In many countries, national accounts statistics are subject to serious shortcomings, which are often manifested as overestimated growth rates.
Where official data are not adequate for surveillance, IMF staff compile alternative estimates by applying various forecasting methods.
This study proposes a more holistic, bottom-up approach, which is based on the compilation of GDP by the expenditure method with limited source data.
The study discusses the case of Turkmenistan, where this method was implemented in practice.

Bottom-up compilation of GDP by the expenditure method using limited source data.
Contrast with existing practice where IMF staff use various forecasting methods to produce alternative estimates when official data are inadequate.

The bottom-up expenditure-method approach was implemented in practice for Turkmenistan.
The paper uses the Turkmenistan experience to illustrate the proposed holistic methodology and its application in a context with statistical shortcomings.

Strengthen national accounts compilation by adopting bottom-up, expenditure-based approaches when source data are limited.
Use holistic methods to produce alternative GDP estimates in cases where official statistics likely overstate growth.
Apply the Turkmenistan case as a practical example for other countries with similar statistical shortcomings.

Authors: Levan Gogoberishvili, Ömer E. Bayar
Date: September 29, 2023
Pages: 27
Volume: 2023
Issue: 207
Series: Working Paper No. 2023/207
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400256646.001
Stock No: WPIEA2023207
ISBN: 9798400256646
ISSN: 1018-5941
Subject: Consumption, Economic sectors, Exports, Financial crises, Gross fixed investment, Household consumption, Imports, International trade, National accounts
Keywords: Central Asia and the Caucasus, commodity trade statistics database, Consumption, data shortcoming, data shortcomings, Exports, forecasting method, GDP, Global, Gross fixed investment, growth estimates, Household consumption, IMF working paper 23/207, Imports, national accounts, reassessing GDP growth

Reassessing GDP Growth in Countries with Statistical Shortcomings - A Case Study on Turkmenistan, IMF Working Papers 2023/207.