Productivity, Technology, and Demographics
IMF Blog, May 5, 2017
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: The Editors
- Published: May 5, 2017
Key observations on productivity and technology
- Hal Varian: "if technology cannot boost productivity, then we are in real trouble."
- Varian identifies "at least three forces at work":
- "the investment hangover from the recession—companies have been slow to reestablish their previous levels of investment."
- "the diffusion of technology—the increasing gap between some of the more advanced companies and less advanced companies."
- "existing metrics are facing some strains in terms of adapting to the new economy."
Demographics and labor force trends
- Varian on demographics: baby boomers "made up most of the labor force from the 1970s through 1990s" and are now retiring but "will continue to be consumers."
- Labor force growth: "Today, the working labor force is growing at less than half of the rate of population growth, which is a concern in terms of how to make the amount produced equal to the amount that people want to consume."
- Long-term horizon: Varian projects "thirty years from now, the global labor force will look very different, as working age populations in many countries, especially in advanced economies, start to shrink."
Skills, learning, and employment outlook
- Addressing worker concerns about automation: Varian cites a Silicon Valley aphorism—"we overestimate what can happen in two years, and we underestimate what can happen in ten years—this has proven true time and again."
- Advice to older workers: "What the 40- and 50-year-olds should be doing is continuing to learn. Lifetime learning is the norm now."
Additional note
- The original content states: "You can listen to the full interview here:"
Source: Productivity, Technology, and Demographics, The Editors, May 5, 2017