Chart of the Week: Electric Takeover in Transportation

IMF Blog, July 31, 2017

Source details

The switch from horses to automobiles in the 20th century paved the way for the rise of oil-based transportation and energy use. Today, electric vehicle ownership is picking up speed.
Greater affordability of electric vehicles will likely steer us away from our current sources of energy for transportation, and toward more environmentally friendly technology.
The transition away from motor vehicles could happen in the next 10 to 25 years, based on parallels with the 20th century horse-car transition.

Patterns observed in the early days of the horse-car transition closely resemble present-day electric vehicle adoption rates.
Between 2011 and 2015, the average annual growth rate of electric vehicle ownership was 120 percent.
Using the horse-car parallel, the working paper forecasts:
- By 2040 motor vehicles could mostly disappear in advanced economies.
- By 2040 motor vehicles could comprise about a third of the fleet of all cars in emerging market and developing economies.

Tesla is spearheading the transition to electric vehicles, while the broader auto industry is rapidly increasing the number of electric models offered, including SUVs.
Volvo announced that it will produce only electric or plug-in hybrids as early as 2019.
Electric cars take fewer parts to produce and require less maintenance than motor vehicles, implying lower manufacturing and after-sales complexity.
Policy and labor implications:
- Investment in people is critical—whether job training or reskilling programs—to enable workers in both advanced and emerging market economies to work with new technologies, such as self-driving cars and in industries such as battery production.

National policy moves and market size:
- The UK and France are aiming to phase out diesel and gas vehicles by 2040.
- China has become the largest market for electric vehicles.
- India recently announced ambitious plans to get millions of electric vehicles on the road by 2030.
Every month seems to bring news confirming a global shift in transportation technology.

Environmental benefits:
- Reduced emissions over time could help achieve the climate change goals of the Paris accord.
Oil market implications:
- The switch to electric cars has deep implications for the oil market; a forthcoming blog will address these implications.

Transition timing estimate: next 10 to 25 years.
Electric vehicle ownership average annual growth rate (2011–2015): 120 percent.
Projection year cited: 2040 (advanced economies: motor vehicles could mostly disappear; emerging market and developing economies: motor vehicles could comprise about a third of the fleet).
Volvo production policy change target: as early as 2019.
India policy target: millions of electric vehicles on the road by 2030.

Source: Chart of the Week: Electric Takeover in Transportation (The Editors), July 31, 2017