Tracking Trade During the COVID-19 Pandemic
IMF Blog, May 14, 2020
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Diego Cerdeiro, Andras Komaromi, Yang Liu, Mamoon Saeed
- Published: May 14, 2020
Summary
- Publication date: May 14, 2020.
- Authors: Diego Cerdeiro, Andras Komaromi, Yang Liu, Mamoon Saeed.
- Purpose: Provide real-time indicators of international trade during the COVID-19 pandemic using ship radio-signal data and machine-learning techniques to overcome delays in official statistics.
New approach and methodology
- Data source: Over one billion messages from ships over a period of five years.
- Frequency and timeliness: Indicators available at a daily frequency in real time, while official statistics are typically delayed by many weeks.
- Validation: The ship-signal–based indicators closely replicate official trade statistics for many countries and for the world in aggregate.
- Statistical correspondence: At the global level, indicators built from ships’ radio signals closely approximate monthly official trade statistics (with a correlation of nearly 0.9 in levels, and around 0.4 in quarter-on-quarter growth rates).
- Technique: Building on machine-learning techniques to infer trade activity from navigational messages (position, speed, and other information reported many times a day).
Key findings and observed patterns
- China:
- Top panel of the Chart of the Week shows a dramatic fall in Chinese exports following initial lockdown measures.
- Exports resumed in early to mid-March, but by late-April the recovery remained incomplete and showed renewed signs of weakness.
- Global patterns:
- As China started reopening, world exports initially recovered across the board.
- Oil and related products: Recent export performance is especially strong but not fully matched by an increase in world imports—consistent with reports that crude oil is being stored at sea.
- Less commoditized goods (those transported in containers, and finished vehicles): Exports of these goods appear on course for a second dip.
- Vehicle trade: Very weak readings for vehicle exports and imports as companies across the supply chain halt production and households postpone purchases of durable goods.
- Interpretation: Daily monitoring of trade developments in real time provides a reliable early warning regarding potential economic contagion effects amid the pandemic.
Policy implications and value to policymakers
- Real-time indicators help policymakers know what is happening to the economy without waiting for delayed official statistics.
- Timely trade information is especially valuable given the complexity of international supply chains and the potential for rapid cross-border contagion of economic shocks.
- The approach can help answer questions such as: How big is the drop in trade activity? Should it be attributed mostly to exports or to imports?
About the blog and institutional context
- IMFBlog: A forum for the views of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff and officials on pressing economic and policy issues of the day.
- Institutional note: The IMF is based in Washington D.C. and is an organization of 191 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation and financial stability.
- Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF and its Executive Board.
Source: Tracking Trade During the COVID-19 Pandemic (IMFBlog), May 14, 2020.
