Without Adaptation, Middle East and Central Asia Face Crippling Climate Losses

IMF Blog, March 30, 2022

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Authors: Jihad Azour, Christoph Duenwald
Published: March 30, 2022

Key findings on impacts

In any given year since 2000, climate disasters have:
- killed more than 2,600 people,
- affected 7 million others,
- caused $2 billion in direct material damage.
Climate disasters in the region reduce annual economic growth by 1-2 percentage points on a per capita basis.
Over the past three decades, temperatures in the region have risen by 1.5 degrees Celsius—twice the global increase of 0.7 degrees Celsius.
A temperature increase of 1 degree Celsius in five of the hottest countries (Bahrain, Djibouti, Mauritania, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates) results in an immediate decline in per capita economic growth of around 2 percentage points.
By 2050, average summertime temperatures could exceed 30 degrees Celsius in half the region’s countries.
In Tajikistan, the annual probability of climate-induced droughts could rise tenfold from 3 percent today to more than 30 percent by the end of this century.
Tunisia: 90 percent of tourism is located along coasts threatened by erosion and vulnerable to further rises in the sea levels.
Examples of acute social impacts: Iran experienced protests after a severe drought forced farmers out of work.

Vulnerability patterns and drivers

Countries with low climate resilience, including fragile and conflict-affected states such as Afghanistan, Somalia, and Sudan, as well as Pakistan, have suffered intensely due to high exposure and vulnerability.
Key compounding factors: reliance on rain-fed subsistence farming, political and macroeconomic instability, low socioeconomic and financial development, and risks to food and social security.
Countries with stronger institutions and climate-resilient infrastructure, and higher levels of socioeconomic and human development (for example, the Gulf Cooperation Council countries), have generally experienced lower human losses.

Climate trends and sectoral risks

Much of the region lies in harsh climate zones where global warming exacerbates desertification, water stress, and rising seas.
Rainfall has become more variable; droughts and floods are more frequent.
Seasons are likely to become drier in the Middle East and North Africa; rainfall is likely to become patchier in the Caucasus, Central Asia, and Pakistan, increasing drought risk.

Adaptation priorities and country examples

Priority should be given to “high-value, no-regret measures” that are beneficial under all plausible climate-change scenarios and to building capacity to adapt to future climate challenges.
Country examples:
- Tunisia has expanded capacity to produce freshwater from desalination.
- Pakistan has strengthened its social safety net by scaling up targeted cash transfers.
- Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have upgraded cross-border early warning systems for natural disasters.
Specific recommended interventions:
- Boost public investment in resilient infrastructure.
- Encourage a greater role for the private sector in adaptation.
- Adjust inclusive growth and development agendas to reflect climate risks (for example, by supporting businesses affected by climate change and strengthening social protection for vulnerable households).
For lower-income, fragile and conflict-affected countries, immediate priorities include strengthening disaster preparedness and improving institutional capacity and community response ability.

Evidence from simulations and economic framing

Simulations for Morocco show that investment in water infrastructure would improve resilience to droughts, reducing GDP losses by almost 60 percent and capping the rise in public debt.
Adaptation policies should be mainstreamed into national economic strategies; macroeconomic frameworks that reflect climate risks should be developed to determine the right policy responses.
Stepping up adaptation efforts will require significant additional spending and financing.

Financing adaptation and international cooperation

Between 2009 and 2019, bilateral and multilateral organizations provided around $70 billion in climate finance to the region; a large proportion was for mitigation initiatives and only around a quarter solely for adaptation.
Countries need greater international support to finance adaptation, ideally on concessional terms, and transfers of expertise and technology to build capacity.
The COP27 summit in Egypt later this year is identified as an opportunity for the international community to scale up climate finance contributions and support adaptation in developing economies.
Tapping additional domestic revenue can help support adaptation spending while reducing increases in public debt.

Opportunities and IMF role

Strengthening capacity to adapt is critical and should be pursued alongside global mitigation and transition efforts.
For countries that adapt in time, opportunities exist to create jobs that are sustainable and support economic recovery and resilience after the pandemic.
The IMF is supporting member countries with policy advice, capacity development, and lending.
A proposed Resilience and Sustainability Trust will further support reforms that increase countries’ resilience to climate change.

Authors: Jihad Azour, Christoph Duenwald — March 30, 2022. International cooperation is essential to manage the costs and maximize the benefits of adaptation, particularly for the most vulnerable countries.

Content in this bundle

Climate Risk Country Profile: Tajikistan
- Climate Risk Country Profile: Tajikistan (Markdown version)
- Climate Risk Country Profile: Tajikistan (PDF)