World Economic Outlook Shows Economies Facing High Uncertainty
IMF Blog, April 19, 2023
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi, Chiara Maggi
- Published: April 19, 2023
Key forecast findings
- Global growth is forecast to slow from 3.4 percent last year to 2.8 percent this year.
- Global growth is expected to accelerate to 3 percent next year.
- In a plausible alternative scenario with further financial sector stress, global growth would decelerate to about 2.5 percent in 2023.
- Looking further ahead, growth is expected to remain around 3 percent over the next five years.
- The baseline forecast of 3 percent five years ahead for 2028 is the lowest medium-term growth projection since 1990.
- The 3 percent five-year forecast is well below the average of 3.8 percent from the past two decades.
Risks and drivers of the outlook
- Risks to the outlook are heavily skewed to the downside, with heightened chances of a hard landing.
- The anemic outlook reflects:
- the tight policy stances needed to bring down inflation,
- the fallout from the recent deterioration in financial conditions,
- Russia’s war in Ukraine,
- and growing geoeconomic fragmentation.
Chart of the Week (data presentation)
- The Chart of the Week aggregates gross domestic product forecasts from the latest assessment.
- Users can add any economy or grouping from the dataset to the chart and move the slider for historical data or future estimates.
Source: World Economic Outlook Shows Economies Facing High Uncertainty (April 19, 2023).