Even as Global Uncertainty Surges, Economic Sentiment Remains Positive

IMF Blog, November 10, 2025

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Canonical URL: Even as Global Uncertainty Surges, Economic Sentiment Remains Positive

Title: Even as Global Uncertainty Surges, Economic Sentiment Remains Positive
Authors: Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom, Davide Furceri
Date: November 10, 2025
Core finding: Global economic uncertainty has surged even as sentiment about economic prospects remains positive.

Major policy shifts this year have been adding to unknowns about the future and policy decisions, according to the World Uncertainty Index, which has doubled since January.
Uncertainty has surged to an exceptionally high level globally, and it’s likely here to stay, as the IMF noted during the recent Annual Meetings.
New subcomponent introduced: World Policy Uncertainty Index.
- Source material: drawn from textual sources.
- Method: tracks reports by the Economist Intelligence Unit by tallying country-level references to “uncertain,” “uncertainty,” and “uncertainties” in passages related to “policy,” “policymaking,” and words related to politics such as “election,” “government,” and “vote.”
- Coverage: 71 advanced countries, emerging markets, and developing economies.
Methodological lineage: the methodology is based on a February 2022 National Bureau of Economic Research working paper.

The World Sentiment Index tracks the same 71 economies in Economist Intelligence Unit reports.
Sentiment measurement:
- Uses word lists developed in a 2016 paper by Herman Stekler and Hilary Symington.
- Groups and weights terms ranging from positives, like “solid” and “steady,” to negatives, such as “crisis” and “recession.”
Historical behavior:
- Index levels are negative during major global recessions and spikes in uncertainty—such as the global financial crisis and the pandemic.
- Although the index temporarily dipped earlier this year, it remains positive and above the historical average.

The Chart of the Week shows a recent record monthly level for policy uncertainty accompanied by relatively upbeat readings for the World Sentiment Index.
Interpretation:
- The coexistence of high policy uncertainty and positive sentiment echoes recent IMF forecasts that the global economy remains resilient and is slowing only modestly.
- Drivers of resilience cited: improved policies, especially in emerging markets, alongside better business adaptability.
- Elevated uncertainty may represent a new normal.

“Uncertainty about Uncertainty,” September 2025 issue of Finance & Development.
Related 2023 blog: “Global Economic Uncertainty Remains Elevated, Weighing on Growth.”
Nicholas Bloom noted as a professor of economics at Stanford University and co-director of the Productivity, Innovation and Entrepreneurship program at the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Source: IMF blog post — Even as Global Uncertainty Surges, Economic Sentiment Remains Positive (November 10, 2025).