Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting
Source details
- Canonical URL
- Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting
Other formats
Bibliographic details
- Session: JV 27.34
- Location: Vienna, Austria
- Dates: November 1-12, 2027 (2 weeks)
- Delivery method: Blended Training
- Primary language: English
- Status: Apply online by July 25, 2027
Program logistics and format
- Session No.: JV 27.34
- Location: Vienna, Austria
- Date: November 1-12, 2027 (2 weeks)
- Delivery Method: Blended Training
- Primary Language: English
- BLENDED COURSE REQUIREMENTS:
- Two compulsory parts.
- Three mandatory short online learning segments and consultation hours with lecturers during October 11 - 22, 2027 (to be completed on participants' own time).
- In-person portion at JVI in Vienna during November 1 - 12, 2027.
- Completing both the online and in-person parts is required to receive the course certificate.
- Application note:
- Due to the transition to a new IMF course registration system, formal applications for this course cannot be submitted at this time.
- Interested candidates can submit their details to be notified when applications open.
Target audience and qualifications
- Target Audience:
- Mid-level to senior officials responsible for monetary policy decision making.
- Staff producing macroeconomic analysis and forecasting or operating macroeconomic models.
- Primarily central bank officials from Monetary Policy Department and/or Research/Modeling Department.
- Representatives from other departments or other agencies (e.g., Ministry of Finance/Economy) are also encouraged to apply.
- Qualifications:
- Expected to have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience.
- Expected to be comfortable using quantitative software such as Matlab, although specific knowledge is not required.
- Recommended to complete the online Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAFx) course prior to participation.
Course description and instructional focus
- Emphasis:
- Rigorous training on the use of Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting.
- Analysis of monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks.
- Practical orientation:
- Tools to develop or extend the canonical model to fit participants' monetary policy framework and selected features of their country's economy.
- Country case studies to reinforce understanding.
- Production of real-time baseline forecasts and alternative scenarios.
Learning objectives and participant outcomes
- Upon completion, participants should be able to:
- Customize a simple model of an economy that embodies the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the shocks this economy may face.
- Acquire and apply tools used in modern central banks to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting using small semi-structural models.
- Use the small semi-structural model to develop consistent medium-term projections for key macro variables, e.g., output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate.
- Identify risks to the baseline forecast and build alternative scenarios that assume certain risks may materialize.
- Start building a simple model for monetary policy analysis and forecasting using their own country data when they return home.
Key features and expectations for participants
- Hands-on model development and extension of the canonical DNK framework.
- Use of small semi-structural models for medium-term projection exercises.
- Scenario analysis focused on risks to the baseline forecast and policy responses.
- Requirement to complete preparatory online modules and in-person workshops to obtain certification.
References