Public Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty (DDUx)

Source details

Session No.: OL 23.137
Deadline: Deadline passed
Date: May 15, 2023 - April 15, 2024 (50 weeks)
Location: Course conducted online
Delivery Method: Online Training
Primary Language: English
Target Audience:
- All government officials are welcome to register.
- Particularly useful for officials from ministries of finance, debt agencies, central banks, and other government agencies responsible for providing advice or implementing macroeconomic and debt policies.
Qualifications:
- Some knowledge of economics is helpful.
- Basic Microsoft Excel skills and access to a computer with a reliable internet connection and a Google Chrome web browser are essential.

Presented jointly by the Institute for Capacity Development and the Fiscal Affairs Department.
Provides an overview of how to assess public debt dynamics under uncertainty.
Discusses how to think about public debt projections when acknowledging uncertainty about key variables underlying debt projections, including:
- GDP growth
- interest and exchange rates
- primary balances
Teaches production and interpretation of fan charts (graphical tools used to describe uncertainty about the evolution of a variable over time).
Presents the concepts of:
- maximum debt limit (level of debt beyond which there could be significant negative consequences for the economy)
- safe debt (a level of debt sufficiently below the debt limit to provide a comfortable and prudent buffer)
Explains how to use fan charts to derive a safe level of debt and how to assess fiscal risks.

Explain what a fan chart of debt is.
Interpret a fan chart to identify risks to public debt dynamics.
Understand how to produce fan charts through simple Monte Carlo simulations.
Understand how to produce fan charts using VAR models and fiscal reaction functions.
Understand the concept of safe debt and maximum debt limit.
Evaluate debt dynamics under uncertainty.