Projecting Public Debt - The Public Debt Dynamics Tool

Source details

Session No.: OL 26.123
Location: Course conducted online
Date: May 1, 2026 - April 15, 2027 (50 weeks)
Delivery Method: Online Training
Primary Language: French
Target Audience:
- Officials from ministries of finance
- Debt agencies
- Central banks
- Other government agencies responsible for providing advice or implementing macroeconomic and debt policies
Qualifications:
- Some knowledge of economics would be helpful.
- Basic Microsoft Excel skills are essential.

The course provides an overview of how to assess public debt dynamics under uncertainty.
It discusses how to think about public debt projections when there is uncertainty about key underlying variables:
- GDP growth
- Interest rates
- Exchange rates
- Primary balances
The course trains participants to produce and interpret fan charts (graphical tools used to describe uncertainty about the evolution of a variable over time).
Concepts presented:
- Maximum debt limit (level of debt beyond which there could be significant negative consequences for the economy)
- Safe debt (a level of debt sufficiently below the debt limit to provide a comfortable and prudent buffer)
The course explains how to:
- Use fan charts to derive a safe level of debt
- Assess fiscal risks

Upon completion of the course, participants should be able to:

Project public debt.
Identify the main drivers of public debt changes.
Compute measures of fiscal adjustments consistent with a public debt target.
Conduct a stress test to public debt projections, including through the use of fan charts.
Identify the main components of a debt sustainability analysis to assess the risk of debt distress.