Revenue Forecasting and Analysis

Source details

Target Audience:
- Government officials working in ministries of finance or in revenue administrations who are charged with conducting revenue forecasts and/or assessing the revenue or distributional impact of tax policy changes.
Qualifications:
- Basic to intermediate understanding of tax policy.
- Degree in economics or tax accountancy (ideally with some background in econometrics).
- Proficiency in Microsoft Excel.

Focus:
- Technical and institutional aspects of revenue forecasting and tax policy analysis.
Coverage:
- Quantitative methods required to forecast and evaluate revenue implications of changes in major taxes:
- Personal income taxes
- Corporate income taxes
- Value added taxes
- Excise taxes
- International trade taxes
- Institutional framework necessary to support the revenue forecasting process.
Methods and learning activities:
- Builds on conceptual and practical approaches.
- Hands-on activities including quizzes and quantitative exercises with real fiscal data.

Describe the role of revenue forecasting in the budget-making process.
Identify good practices relating to the institutional framework that supports the revenue forecasting process.
Identify data requirements for each method of revenue forecasting.
Apply macro-based models to forecast tax revenue.
Apply input-output models and micro-simulation techniques to analyze the revenue and distributional implications from indirect and direct taxes.
Recognize the strengths and limitations of different models.