Revenue Forecasting and Analysis

Source details

Target audience:
- Government officials working in ministries of finance or in revenue administrations who are charged with conducting revenue forecasts and/or assessing the revenue or distributional impact of tax policy changes.
Qualifications:
- Basic to intermediate understanding of tax policy.
- Degree in economics or tax accountancy (ideally with some background in econometrics).
- Proficiency in Microsoft Excel.

Focuses on technical and institutional aspects of revenue forecasting and tax policy analysis.
Provides an overview of quantitative methods required to forecast and evaluate revenue implications of changes in major taxes:
- Personal income taxes
- Corporate income taxes
- Value added taxes
- Excise taxes
- International trade taxes
Emphasizes the necessity of establishing a strong institutional framework to support the revenue forecasting process.
Uses conceptual and practical approaches with hands-on activities, including quizzes and quantitative exercises with real fiscal data.

Upon completion of the course, participants should be able to:

Describe the role of revenue forecasting in the budget-making process.
Identify good practices relating to the institutional framework that supports the revenue forecasting process.
Identify data requirements for each method of revenue forecasting.
Apply macro-based models to forecast tax revenue.
Apply input-output models and micro-simulation techniques to analyze the revenue and distributional implications from indirect and direct taxes.
Recognize the strengths and limitations of different models.

Quantitative methods covered:
- Macro-based forecasting models for tax revenue.
- Input-output models for indirect tax analysis.
- Micro-simulation techniques for direct tax and distributional analysis.
Institutional and data requirements:
- Identification of data needs specific to each forecasting method.
- Discussion of good institutional practices to support forecasting processes.
Pedagogy:
- Hands-on activities, quizzes, and quantitative exercises using real fiscal data.