KYRGYZ REPUBLIC: Estimation of White (Light) Oil Reexport
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Scope and Rationale
- The National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic made a decision to carry out an additional estimation of light oil re-export due to increased incidence of informal oil exports across southern borders of Kyrgyzstan as a result of oil price difference with neighboring countries.
- The additional estimation is calculated as an average of 2 methods: balance method and method based on the volume of re-export proceeding from the number of vehicles.
Estimation Framework and Key Formulas
- Rave = (R1+R2)/2
- Rave – The average of light oil products reexport based on 2 methods.
- R1 – Balance method. The residue of light oil products’ volume which is not consumed is subsequently re-exported.
- R2 – The method of calculation based on the volume of reexport according to the number of vehicles.
- Balance method formula (R1):
R1= Impm * (((Impv-A)*((∑Рv+∑Dv)/ Impv))/ Impv )
- A – Conditional oil products market size in Kyrgyzstan;
- Impv – Volume of oil imports and domestic production of petrol during the reporting period;
- Impm – Value of oil imports and domestic production of petrol during the reporting period;
- ∑Рv – Volume of car petrol imports and domestic production of petrol during the reporting period;
- ∑Dv – Volume of diesel fuel imports and domestic production of diesel during the reporting period.
- Vehicle-based method formula (R2):
R2 = ((∑Рv - (QP*V)) *PrP) + ((∑Dv – (QD*V))*PrD)
- ∑Dv – Volume of diesel fuel imports and domestic production of diesel during the reporting period;
- V – Number of vehicles during the reporting period;
- PrP – Car petrol price;
- PrD – Diesel fuel price;
- QP – Share of petrol consumption by 1 vehicle;
- QD – Share of diesel fuel consumption by 1 vehicle.
Data Sources and Compilation Practices
- Import – official statistics.
- Oil products market size – expert opinions.
- The estimation is derived by averaging two independent methodological approaches (balance-based and vehicle-based) to capture informal re-exports driven by cross-border price differentials.
Linkages Across Statistical Domains
- Estimation is included in both balance of payments and national accounts statistics.