IMF Survey : Cyprus Turns Economy Around, Successfully Exits IMF Program
IMF News, March 15, 2016
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- Authors: Eszter Balazs IMF Survey March
- Published: March 15, 2016
Main achievements of the program
- IMF arrangement had two main goals: to put the banking sector on a sound footing and to return public finances to a sustainable path; "Both of these objectives were met."
- Positive growth returned earlier than expected, "already last year," despite large fiscal consolidation; unemployment has begun to fall.
- Institutional and legal improvements introduced to reduce future vulnerability.
- Fiscal achievements:
- Strong fiscal adjustment under difficult economic circumstances.
- Adoption of a well-targeted income support scheme to protect the most vulnerable.
- New legislation modernized the budget process, strengthened accountability for public spending, and established medium-term fiscal planning.
- Tax collection made more efficient and equitable.
- Banking-sector achievements:
- Capital positions and liquidity have been restored.
- New foreclosure and insolvency rules encourage banks and borrowers to find workable solutions for unpaid loans.
- System for issuing and transferring real estate title deeds changed to address long-standing property ownership assignment problems.
Remaining vulnerabilities and key statistics
- Cyprus cancelled its program on March 7.
- Non-performing loans (NPLs) remain very high at 60 percent, equivalent to 150 percent of GDP.
- Public debt is "just over 100 percent of GDP."
- Unemployment stands at over 15 percent.
- The IMF and ESM made available to Cyprus €9 billion and €1 billion under their respective programs.
- Cyprus regained access to international financial markets "barely 16 months after the crisis" and has successfully issued debt three times since then.
Policy recommendations and priorities going forward
- Vigorously apply program tools to reform the economy and build resilience.
- Banking sector:
- Continue to work down the large stock of NPLs to shore up banks.
- Fiscal policy:
- Maintain primary fiscal surpluses to lower public debt.
- Continue to implement prudent policies and reforms after the program period.
- Complete the pending reform of the public administration, with a goal to ensure the wage bill does not outpace the overall economy.
- Structural reforms:
- Implement growth-enhancing structural reforms to reduce unemployment and sustain output growth.
- Continue to carry out the privatization strategy.
Program design and international coordination
- IMF and ESM programs were closely aligned in objectives and conditionality, with good collaboration among IMF, European Commission, and European Central Bank staff, enabling a single-voice approach.
- Division of focus:
- IMF concentrated on financial and fiscal policies.
- European institutions handled structural policies including privatization, health reform, competition, and labor markets.
IMF technical assistance on potential reunification
- IMF assisting Greek- and Turkish-Cypriot communities with technical advice on economic and financial aspects of settlement negotiations.
- Work underway includes:
- Developing macroeconomic and fiscal frameworks for a united Cyprus.
- Integrating public finances through an efficient federal structure.
- Assessing health of the financial sector.
- Developing a strategy for the euro changeover in the Turkish-Cypriot community.
- Constructing a reliable set of integrated macroeconomic statistics.
- Several missions have already taken place to support efforts toward an economically viable solution that will encourage trade and investment and raise long-term growth.
IMF Survey : Cyprus Turns Economy Around, Successfully Exits IMF Program — By Eszter Balazs, IMF Survey, March 15, 2016