IMF Survey : Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis: An International Call for Action

IMF News, April 15, 2016

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Canonical URL: IMF Survey : Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis: An International Call for Action

Publication: IMF Survey
Author: Nadya Saber
Date: April 15, 2016
Central message: The current and unprecedented refugee crisis requires a “bigger, bolder, and broader” international response with scaled-up financial support and policies to integrate refugees into labor markets.

“More than 23 million people in the Middle East are displaced due to conflict.”
The Syrian conflict alone has produced “nearly five million refugees,” the majority of whom fled to Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan.
Europe experienced “about 1.2 million” asylum entrants to the European Union in 2015.
“Over 42,000 people every day get displaced because of conflict, violence or persecution.”

For countries able to integrate refugees into the workforce, the influx can boost growth potential; IMF research cited by Christine Lagarde showed that long-term growth could increase by “0.2 percent on average in the European Union.”
Context provided: “In a region where average growth is about 1.5 percent, 0.2 percent is worth looking at.”
Policy emphasis: international institutions should develop policies to integrate refugees into labor markets fairly, including harmonizing asylum policies regarding social benefits and access to labor markets.

Jordan example:
- Jordan has historically supported refugee inflows and has borne the majority of Syrian refugees.
- Jordan adopted a holistic approach of integrating refugees into the labor market and opened up certain sectors of the economy to allow Syrians to find work.
- Fiscal strain: Jordan faces a “high debt-to-GDP ratio at around 90 percent” while hosting “1.3 million Syrians displaced in Jordan.”
- Policy ask: Jordan is seeking financial support from the international community and calls that countries “should be recognized for their efforts and sacrifices” and “should not be left to shoulder the burden alone.”
Political dimension: Ian Bremmer emphasized focusing support on local and regional powers that “are clearly going to be forced to bear 99 percent of this burden,” rather than only on great powers.

Christine Lagarde framed the situation as “a humanitarian crisis of huge scale” requiring “collective and massive action.”
Financing volumes and government support need to be “bigger than what people think of at the moment.”
European Commission approach (as described by Kristalina Georgieva): a four-pillar plan under discussion to build a stronger Europe to cope with migration shocks, consisting of:
- Harmonizing asylum policies (social benefits and access to labor markets)
- Securing external borders
- Combating human trafficking
- Tackling root causes of displacement
IMF role and policy advice:
- The IMF is working on policy recommendations that give countries affected by the refugee crisis “credit for making changes that are macro-critical.”
- Lagarde highlighted nontraditional macroeconomic issues (e.g., women and girls in refugee situations) as having macroeconomic dimensions and pledged to continue raising attention to these issues.

“More than 23 million people in the Middle East are displaced due to conflict”
“nearly five million refugees” (from the Syrian conflict)
“about 1.2 million” asylum entrants to the EU in 2015
“0.2 percent on average in the European Union” (long-term growth increase from IMF research)
“average growth is about 1.5 percent”
“Over 42,000 people every day get displaced because of conflict, violence or persecution”
“1.3 million Syrians displaced in Jordan”
“high debt-to-GDP ratio at around 90 percent” (Jordan)
“99 percent of this burden” (to be borne by local and regional powers, per Ian Bremmer)

IMF Survey : Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis: An International Call for Action — April 15, 2016