IMF Executive Board Concludes 2018 Article IV Consultation, Completes Third Reviews under Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, and Approves US$136.6 Million Disbursement with Côte d'Ivoire
IMF News, June 18, 2018
Source details
- Canonical URL
- IMF Executive Board Concludes 2018 Article IV Consultation, Completes Third Reviews under Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, and Approves US$136.6 Million Disbursement with Côte d'Ivoire
Other formats
Bibliographic details
- Published: June 18, 2018
Program overview and actions
- Executive Board concluded the Article IV consultation and completed the third reviews under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangements for the Republic of Côte d’Ivoire on June 18, 2018.
- Completion of the review enables the disbursement of SDR 96.786 million (about US$136.6 million).
- The three-year ECF/EFF arrangements have total access of SDR 650.4 million (about US$917.8 million or 100 percent of Côte d’Ivoire’s quota) and were approved on December 12, 2016.
- Program objectives: achieve a sustainable balance of payments position, foster inclusive growth and poverty reduction, and create fiscal space for priority infrastructure and social projects.
- Program anchor: convergence of the budget deficit to the WAEMU regional norm of 3 percent of GDP by 2019.
Macroeconomic performance and outlook
- GDP growth: estimated at about 7¾ percent in 2017 despite the fall in cocoa prices.
- Inflation: remained subdued at about 1 percent in 2017.
- IMF projection: medium-term outlook for continued strong economic activity with robust growth and low inflation; Mr. Mitsuhiro Furusawa stated growth projected to average around 7 percent over 2018-23.
- Risks to the forecast: broadly balanced.
Fiscal policy, revenue, and debt management
- Fiscal objective: contain the budget deficit in 2017, meet the program budget deficit target in 2018, and reduce the fiscal gap to meet the WAEMU 3 percent of GDP convergence criterion in 2019.
- Policy measures: mobilize revenue, prioritize spending to create fiscal space for priority infrastructure and social projects, strengthen revenue administration and public financial management, and adopt measures for fiscal consolidation while protecting priority spending.
- Guidance: further revenue mobilization needed; accelerate fiscal structural reforms; cautious debt and financial management required to anchor debt on a sustainable path.
- Directors’ advice: lower the budget deficit by accelerating revenue administration reforms and adopting additional tax policy measures consistent with WAEMU guidelines; build consensus on tax reforms with the private sector.
- Debt metrics and monitoring: Directors noted debt distress risk remains moderate but external debt liquidity and solvency indicators warrant close monitoring; preserve fiscal consolidation to limit recourse to external financing; monitor fiscal risks from public enterprises and private‑public partnerships.
Structural reforms and financial sector policies
- Structural reforms pursued: strengthen revenue administration, public financial management, and financial system stability.
- Financial sector: generally stable but pockets of vulnerability; authorities urged to address vulnerabilities and further consolidate banking sector stability.
- Energy sector: Directors recommended accelerating energy sector restructuring, welcomed government agreements with SIR and PETROCI, encouraged timely resolution of electricity arrears by the public sector, and looked forward to SIR debt restructuring by end‑August 2018.
- Business environment: continued reforms to improve the business environment and governance to make private investment the main driver of growth.
Executive Board assessment and recommendations
- Directors welcomed sound macroeconomic policy management amid domestic shocks and unfavorable cocoa prices, and commended good performance under the Fund‑supported program.
- Encouraged continued reforms to foster sustainable and inclusive growth, reduce poverty, and strengthen social cohesion.
- Recommended ensuring adequate funding for critical infrastructure and social safety nets by accelerating revenue mobilization.
- Emphasized sustaining progress in disseminating and improving the quality of economic statistics; welcomed publication of quarterly national accounts and encouraged further improvement in high‑frequency indicators.
- Next Article IV consultation to take place in accordance with Executive Board decision on consultation cycles for members with Fund arrangements.
Key economic indicators and projections (selected figures preserved exactly as presented)
- GDP at constant prices: 2017 = 7.8; 2018 = 7.4; 2019 = 7.0; 2020 = 6.9; 2021 = 6.8; 2022 = 6.6 (annual percentage changes)
- GDP deflator: 2017 = 1.1; 2018 = 0.5; 2019 = 2.0; 2020 = 1.8; 2021 = 1.9
- Consumer price index (annual average): 2017 = 0.8; 2018 = 1.7
- Exports of goods, f.o.b., at current prices: 2017 = 8.4; 2018 = 5.2; 2019 = 8.7; 2020 = 8.5; 2021 = 11.4; 2022 = 12.2
- Imports of goods, f.o.b., at current prices: 2017 = 4.9; 2018 = 15.0; 2019 = 12.0; 2020 = 8.9; 2021 = 11.7
- Export volume: 2017 = 15.7; 2018 = 10.1; 2019 = 12.3; 2020 = 12.8
- Import volume: 2017 = 6.3; 2018 = 8.8; 2019 = 11.9; 2020 = 9.4; 2021 = 10.4; 2022 = 9.8
- Terms of trade (deterioration –): 2017 = -4.3; 2018 = -8.3; 2019 = 0.1; 2020 = -1.1; 2021 = -1.3
- Money and quasi‑money (M2) growth (changes in percent of beginning-of-period broad money): 2017 = 19.7; 2018 = 14.6; 2019 = 13.5; 2020 = 12.1; 2021 = 11.0
- Net foreign assets (changes in percent of beginning-of-period broad money): 2017 = 9.6; 2018 = 8.1; 2019 = 3.7; 2020 = 2.7; 2021 = 2.2
- Credit to the economy (percent): 2017 = 13.3; 2018 = 13.4; 2019 = 13.0
- Total revenue and grants (% of GDP): 2017 = 19.2; 2018 = 19.3; 2019 = 19.4; 2020 = 19.5; 2021 = 19.5
- Total revenue (% of GDP): 2017 = 18.1; 2018 = 18.4; 2019 = 18.6; 2020 = 18.9
- Total expenditure (% of GDP): 2017 = 23.4; 2018 = 23.0; 2019 = 22.2; 2020 = 22.4
- Overall balance, incl. grants, payment order basis (% of GDP): 2017 = -4.2; 2018 = -3.8; 2019 = -3.0; 2020 = -2.9
- Primary basic balance 1/ (% of GDP): 2017 = -1.2; 2018 = -0.4; 2019 = 0.9; 2020 = 0.6
- Gross investment (% of GDP): 2017 = 20.8; 2018 = 22.0; 2019 = 22.8; 2020 = 24.0; 2021 = 24.2
- Gross domestic saving (% of GDP): 2017 = 23.5; 2018 = 23.1; 2019 = 23.8; 2020 = 25.1; 2021 = 25.9
- Current account balance (including official transfers, % of GDP): 2017 = -2.1; 2018 = -2.7; 2019 = -3.1; 2020 = -2.8; 2021 = -2.5
- Current account balance (excluding official transfers, % of GDP): 2017 = -3.2; 2018 = -3.9; 2019 = -4.1; 2020 = -3.7
- Central government debt, gross (% of GDP): 2017 = 46.8; 2018 = 48.7; 2019 = 47.3; 2020 = 46.9; 2021 = 46.0; 2022 = 45.2
- Central government debt (excluding C2D, % of GDP): 2017 = 42.7; 2018 = 44.7; 2019 = 44.0; 2020 = 44.2; 2021 = 43.4; 2022 = 43.4
- External debt (% of GDP): 2017 = 28.6; 2018 = 34.0; 2019 = 32.5; 2020 = 30.6; 2021 = 29.4; 2022 = 28.5
- External debt (excluding C2D, % of GDP): 2017 = 23.9; 2018 = 29.5; 2019 = 28.8; 2020 = 27.6; 2021 = 26.6; 2022 = 25.8
- External debt-service due (CFAF billions): 2017 = 556; 2018 = 672; 2019 = 738; 2020 = 1037; 2021 = 651; 2022 = 704
- Nominal GDP (CFAF billions): 2017 = 23,510; 2018 = 25,372; 2019 = 27,687; 2020 = 30,106; 2021 = 32,748; 2022 = 35,541
- Nominal GDP at market prices (US$ billions): 2017 = 40.5; 2018 = 48.0; 2019 = 52.9; 2020 = 58.2; 2021 = 63.8; 2022 = 69.7
- Population (million): 2017 = 25.0; 2018 = 25.6; 2019 = 26.3; 2020 = 27.0; 2021 = 27.7; 2022 = 28.4
- Nominal GDP per capita (CFAF thousands): 2017 = 942; 2018 = 991; 2019 = 1,054; 2020 = 1,117; 2021 = 1,184; 2022 = 1,252
- Nominal GDP per capita (US$): 2017 = 1,621; 2018 = 1,872; 2019 = 2,014; 2020 = 2,159; 2021 = 2,305; 2022 = 2,456
- Real GDP per capita growth (percent): 2017 = 4.8; 2018 = 4.4; 2019 = 4.3; 2020 = 4.2
Press Release No. 18/241, June 18, 2018 — International Monetary Fund.