Transcript of IMF Press Briefing

IMF News, December 13, 2018

Source details

Managing Director Christine Lagarde to visit Ghana, South Africa, Angola, and the Seychelles in the coming weeks; in Ghana she will open a regional conference on employment and the future of work in Sub-Saharan Africa and deliver a keynote public speech on Ghana's economic prospects.
IMF to update and make available the Global Debt Database later today; the dataset covers public and private debt for about 190 countries and was launched earlier this year.

Current IMF estimated total lending capacity: about a trillion dollars.
Composition of IMF funding includes quota (permanent resources), the New Arrangements to Borrow, and bilateral borrowings.
IMF is actively engaged in discussions to complete the 15th Review of Quotas by the time of the Annual Meetings 2019, at the latest.
IMF statement on resource needs: IMF currently has the financial means to fulfill its role, but membership is discussing future resource requirements and modalities; modality decisions are for the membership to determine.

Venezuela
- Executive Board previously issued a Declaration of Censure for failure to provide accurate and timely data.
- IMF received data from Venezuelan authorities; IMF staff is reviewing the data and will submit a report to the Board in the coming weeks for assessment of compliance.
- Whether the Declaration of Censure is lifted will be a Board decision based on the assessment.

Ecuador
- Reported $900 million loan from China was mentioned by the Ecuadorian President; IMF has no specific details and did not comment on that loan.
- IMF notes debt sustainability is a priority issue assessed in surveillance and program contexts.

Ukraine
- Staff-level agreement reached on a new Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) equivalent to about $3.9 billion.
- IMF Board scheduled to consider the SBA on December 18; the amount and schedule of the first disbursement will be decided by the Board at that meeting.

Argentina
- IMF staff and Argentine authorities reached a staff-level agreement on the second review of Argentina's economic program on November 26.
- Completion of the second review is scheduled for Board consideration on December 19.
- IMF view: authorities’ revised and strengthened economic plan is yielding positive results; key now is implementation to restore confidence and enable return of growth.

Pakistan
- IMF staff mission was in Islamabad until about November 20 following Pakistan's request for IMF financial support; discussions remain active on policy priorities and reforms.
- Debt transparency is essential and a detailed Debt Sustainability Analysis will be conducted as part of program discussions; program details will be disclosed when program agreement is reached.
- Board approval is required for any IMF program; the Board includes member representation such as the United States.

Turkey
- No program request from Turkish authorities and no program discussions underway.
- IMF baseline projection: growth to slow to 0.4 percent in 2019 with considerable downside risks before slowly converging to potential growth by 2020.

Greece
- IMF reiterated general concerns about corruption's corrosive effects on economies; no comment on individual cases.

United Kingdom / Brexit
- IMF published a staff report on the UK in mid-November with updated scenarios.
- IMF view: all likely Brexit outcomes will entail costs to the UK economy; higher impediments mean higher costs.
- The hard Brexit / no-deal scenario (leaving without a withdrawal agreement and framework for the future relationship) is described as the most significant near-term risk to the UK economy.

Haiti
- IMF staff team on a fact-finding mission in Port-au-Prince; discussing recent economic developments, social protection strategy, and public investment strategy. Mission is not a program discussion at this stage.

Yemen
- IMF concerned about the humanitarian situation and economic costs of the conflict.
- IMF providing technical assistance to the Central Bank of Yemen to identify capacity gaps and supporting measures to facilitate imports of basic staples and civil service wage payments; IMF urges remedial international action.

Egypt
- A technical issue affected the Board calendar entry for Egypt's fourth review (previously scheduled for December 19); IMF is finalizing details with Egyptian authorities and will announce the revised date in due course.

Zimbabwe
- IMF staff is discussing a staff-monitored program with Zimbabwe to assist with fiscal consolidation and reforms; authorities have requested a staff-monitored program.
- A full IMF financial program would require clearance of arrears to other international financial institutions and agreement with official bilateral creditors.

France
- Recent tax and wage measures announced to address social tensions are expected to support purchasing power of workers and pensioners but will increase the 2019 deficit.
- IMF recommendation: compensatory measures should be considered to safeguard public finance sustainability; finding a renewed social consensus to continue reforms is important.

Debt sustainability is a central priority in IMF surveillance and program work.
IMF emphasizes the importance of debt transparency to conduct proper Debt Sustainability Analyses during program design and assessment.
Global Debt Database update announced to support debt analysis for about 190 countries.

Quota/resource discussions: IMF will work with members to ensure it remains "sufficiently and efficiently resourced" into the future; modalities to be decided by members.
Program implementation: IMF stresses that program implementation is key to restoring market confidence and enabling growth (Argentina cited as example).
Debt transparency: essential for credible program design and assessment (Pakistan, Ecuador, general practice).
Yemen and humanitarian crises: IMF provides technical assistance, supports measures to facilitate imports and wage payments, and calls for international action to alleviate humanitarian crises.
France: support measures for purchasing power should be offset by compensatory fiscal measures to maintain sustainability.
Brexit: agreement minimizing uncertainty and trade barriers best supports growth; de-escalation of trade tensions (U.S.–China) encouraged.

Global Debt Database covers about 190 countries.
IMF estimated total lending capacity: about a trillion dollars.
15th Review of Quotas target completion: by the Annual Meetings 2019, at the latest.
Ukraine Stand-By Arrangement equivalent to about $3.9 billion; Board scheduled December 18.
Argentina second review completion scheduled for December 19.
Pakistan IMF mission in Islamabad concluded around November 20.
IMF staff–Argentina staff-level agreement date: November 26.
Turkey growth projection: 0.4 percent in 2019, converging to potential by 2020.
Report referenced: UK staff report published mid-November.
Ecuador: President announced a $900 million loan from China; Government said the loan came with an interest rate "three-and-a-half points below the average market, which is around 10 percent." IMF had no specific details on that loan.

Transcript of IMF Press Briefing, December 13, 2018 — IMF Communications Department