Washington, DC
: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) approved a 36-month arrangement under the
Extended Credit Facility
(ECF) in an amount equivalent to SDR 324.0 million (about US$455 million or 200
percent of the Republic of Congo’s quota in the Fund), to help the country
maintain macroeconomic stability and support economic recovery in the
context of the pandemic, including by catalyzing financial support from
official donors. The Executive Board’s decision will enable an immediate
disbursement equivalent to SDR 64.80 million (about US$90 million).
Over the long term, policies under this ECF-supported program will help
reduce fragilities and place the Republic of Congo onto a path of higher,
more resilient, and inclusive growth. It will also contribute to the
regional effort to restore and preserve external stability for the
Central African Economic and Monetary Union
(CEMAC).
At the conclusion of the Executive Board’s discussion, Mr. Kenji Okamura,
Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, made the following statement:
“The Republic of Congo’s economy is expected to strengthen in the second
half of the year, supported by vaccine rollout, social spending, and
domestic arrears payments. However, the nascent recovery is facing
significant risks, including a possible worsening of the pandemic,
continued volatility in oil prices and production, climate change shocks,
and weaker-than-expected reform implementation.
“The authorities’ program, supported by a new three-year Extended Credit
Facility arrangement, aims to maintain macroeconomic stability during the
recovery, reduce fragilities, and put the country on a medium-term path to
higher, more resilient, and inclusive growth. The arrangement is also
expected to catalyze development partner support.
“Reducing debt vulnerabilities while supporting a strong and equitable
recovery will be key. To this end, ensuring adequate fiscal space for
critical social spending and infrastructure investment is essential. The
authorities are focused on strengthening domestic revenue mobilization and
public spending efficiency, including through enhanced public investment
management. Improved debt management will also be instrumental, including
to ensure steady repayment of debt and arrears. The authorities are taking
steps to finalize external debt restructuring.
“Wide-ranging structural reforms are central to improving governance and
the business environment, and addressing challenges from climate change and
the global transition to low-carbon economies. Operationalizing the new
anti-corruption architecture, implementing energy sector reforms,
strengthening public financial management, and enhancing financial
stability and inclusion would help address long-standing structural
bottlenecks and raise confidence.”
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Table 1. Republic
of Congo: Selected
Economic and
Financial
Indicators, 2020–26
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2020
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2021
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2021
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2022
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2023
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2024
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2025
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2026
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Est.
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2021 AIV
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Proj.
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(Annual percentage
change unless otherwise
indicated)
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Production and prices
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GDP at constant prices
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-8.1
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-0.2
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-0.2
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2.4
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2.9
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6.5
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2.2
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1.2
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Oil
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-8.5
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-2.9
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-2.9
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1.0
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1.5
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11.5
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-2.4
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-7.1
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Non-oil
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-8.0
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0.9
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0.9
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3.3
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3.7
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4.0
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4.4
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4.8
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GDP at current prices
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-20.8
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17.5
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17.3
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3.3
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2.8
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6.9
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3.1
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2.8
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GDP deflator
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-13.8
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17.7
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17.5
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0.8
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-0.1
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0.4
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0.9
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1.5
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Non-oil
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1.8
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2.0
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2.0
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2.8
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3.0
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3.0
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3.0
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3.0
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Consumer prices (period
average)
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1.4
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2.0
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2.1
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2.7
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3.0
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3.0
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3.0
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3.0
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Consumer prices (end of
period)
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0.6
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2.7
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2.8
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3.0
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3.0
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3.0
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3.0
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3.0
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External sector
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Exports, f.o.b.
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-36.2
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44.2
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44.2
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0.5
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-3.1
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5.8
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-4.3
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-4.9
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Imports, f.o.b.
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-25.3
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14.7
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13.2
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13.5
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6.8
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8.8
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2.1
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0.3
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Export volume
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-2.2
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3.0
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4.7
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2.5
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2.0
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6.7
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1.5
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5.3
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Import volume
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-19.8
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-6.6
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-9.9
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14.7
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10.8
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11.1
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3.6
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-3.0
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Terms of trade
(deterioration - )
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-27.8
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17.3
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12.0
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-0.8
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-1.4
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1.2
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-4.4
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-13.1
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Current account balance
(percent of GDP)
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-0.1
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12.1
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13.4
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5.5
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0.3
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-1.4
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-4.0
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-4.3
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Net foreign assets
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-8.0
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11.0
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5.3
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-7.5
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32.9
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13.7
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15.2
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23.5
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External public debt
(percent of GDP)
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62.4
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49.6
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50.1
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46.0
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43.3
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38.7
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34.9
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33.2
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Monetary sector
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Broad money
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18.0
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32.7
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27.2
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10.8
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10.5
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8.3
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12.4
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14.2
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Credit to the private
sector
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3.5
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0.8
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0.6
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4.1
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3.3
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4.5
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8.0
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9.4
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(Percent of GDP)
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Investment and saving
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Gross national saving
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22.5
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33.5
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34.4
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29.3
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25.2
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23.4
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21.4
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21.7
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Gross investment
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22.6
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21.3
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21.0
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23.8
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24.9
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24.8
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25.4
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26.0
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(Percent of non-oil
GDP, unless otherwise
indicated)
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Central government
finances
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Total revenue
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31.1
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36.2
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38.2
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39.8
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37.6
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37.6
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35.4
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33.0
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Oil revenue
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15.3
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21.6
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22.9
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23.2
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20.8
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20.6
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17.9
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15.1
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Nonoil revenue
(including grants)
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15.8
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14.6
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15.3
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16.6
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16.8
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17.0
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17.5
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17.9
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Total expenditure and
net lending
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32.8
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33.8
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36.0
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35.5
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35.6
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34.6
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34.9
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34.1
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Current
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27.8
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28.2
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31.0
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28.2
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28.0
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27.2
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27.1
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26.2
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Capital (and net
lending)
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5.0
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5.6
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5.0
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7.3
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7.6
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7.4
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7.8
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7.9
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Overall balance
(deficit -, payment
order basis)
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-1.7
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2.4
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2.2
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4.3
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2.0
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3.0
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0.6
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-1.1
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Overall balance
(deficit -, payment
order basis, percent of
GDP)
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-1.2
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1.5
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1.4
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2.7
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1.4
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2.0
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0.4
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-0.8
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Non-oil primary balance
(- = deficit)
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-15.2
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-17.0
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-17.1
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-15.7
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-15.3
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-14.4
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-14.4
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-13.3
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Basic primary fiscal
balance (- = deficit) 1
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0.2
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4.7
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5.7
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7.5
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5.4
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6.2
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3.5
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1.8
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Basic non-oil primary
balance (- = deficit) 2
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-15.3
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-14.7
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-16.5
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-12.7
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-12.1
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-11.3
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-11.4
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-10.9
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Reference fiscal
balance (percent of
GDP)3
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2.6
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0.4
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-0.5
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-1.2
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-2.7
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-1.4
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-1.7
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-1.9
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Primary balance
(percent of GDP)
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0.1
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2.9
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3.6
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4.8
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3.6
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4.2
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2.5
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1.3
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Financing gap (in
percent of GDP)
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0.0
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0.0
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0.0
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3.1
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2.9
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1.8
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0.0
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0.0
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Total public debt
(percent of GDP) 4
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110.1
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84.2
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93.5
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89.3
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83.6
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74.9
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71.9
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72.1
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(Percent of total
government revenue
excluding grants)
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External public debt
service
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42.0
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34.4
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29.0
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33.4
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28.6
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24.0
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20.3
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11.0
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(Billions of CFA
francs, unless
otherwise indicated)
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Nominal GDP
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5,937
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6,976
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6,962
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7,189
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7,390
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7,899
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8,146
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8,370
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Nominal oil GDP
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1,691
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2,607
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2,593
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2,550
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2,436
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2,591
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2,438
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2,208
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Nominal non-oil GDP
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4,245
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4,369
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4,369
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4,639
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4,955
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5,308
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5,708
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6,162
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Nominal GDP in US$
(millions)
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10,329
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12,744
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12,676
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13,235
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13803
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14934
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15,568
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16,122
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Congolese oil price
(U.S. dollars per
barrel)
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39
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65
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65
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64
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61
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59
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57
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56
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Brent Price (U.S
dollars per barrel)
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42
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67
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67
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66
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63
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61
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59
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58
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Oil production
(Millions of barrels)
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112
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109
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109
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110
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112
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125
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122
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113
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Nominal Exchange rate
(CFA/USD, period
average)
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575
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…
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…
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…
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…
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…
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…
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…
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REER (percentage
change)
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6.5
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…
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…
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…
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…
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…
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…
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…
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Sources: Congolese
authorities; and IMF
staff estimates and
projections.
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1
Revenue excluding
grants minus total
expenditures (excluding
interest payments and
foreign-financed public
investment).
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2
Non-oil revenue
excluding grants minus
total expenditures
excluding interest
payments and
foreign-financed
investment.
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3
Overall balance minus
20 percent of oil
revenues and minus 80
percent of the oil
revenue in excess of
the average observed
during the three
previous years.
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4
The 2020 stock of debt
has been revised upward
since the 2021 Article
IV to reflect data and
coverage revisions.
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