Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, March 27, 2025
IMF News, March 27, 2025
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- Published: March 27, 2025
Announcements and logistics
- 2025 Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank Group: Monday, April 21st, to Saturday, April 26th.
- Press registration to attend in person in Washington is open via www.imfconnect.org.
- Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will deliver a Curtain Raiser speech and related fireside chat on Thursday, April 17th; open to registered media and livestreamed on the Press Center and IMF social media channels.
- This press briefing was embargoed until 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time in the United States.
Argentina — status of new IMF-supported program discussions
- IMF assessment:
- Argentina has embarked on a stabilization program described as "truly impressive."
- Since end of 2023: inflation has declined following a "very large fiscal consolidation" and steps to heal the Central Bank's balance sheet; complemented by deregulation, market reforms, elimination of distortions and some controls.
- Despite sharp macroeconomic adjustment: economic activity is recovering strongly, real wages are increasing, and poverty is declining; social assistance to vulnerable groups has increased.
- Program discussions:
- "Discussions on a new Fund supported program are very advanced" and "include discussions around a sizable financing package."
- The size of the package "is ultimately to be determined by our Executive Board."
- Policy coverage remains under discussion; need to continue consistent fiscal, monetary, and foreign exchange policies while furthering growth-enhancing reforms.
- Disbursement mechanics:
- Disbursements "will come in tranches over the life of the program"; exact phasing and tranche sizes are part of ongoing discussions.
- On reported $20 billion figure:
- IMF did not confirm coordination on Minister Caputo's announcement and did not confirm a final figure; reiterated that discussions focus on a "sizable financing program" and that the Executive Board will determine the final amount.
- Exchange rate policy:
- Specific policy measures (including any exchange rate regime changes or exchange rate bands) remain under discussion and are not confirmed.
Russia — growth and inflation outlook
- IMF view (quoting January WEO and noting update in April WEO):
- 2024 growth was 3.8 percent.
- January WEO projection: growth slowing to 1.4 percent in 2025 as tighter monetary policy takes hold and the cyclical recovery wanes.
- Inflation remains well above the Central Bank of Russia's target of 4 percent.
- Current assessment: "not seeing signs of an easing of inflation" though January WEO projected easing of price pressures in the coming year.
- Projections for Russia to be updated in the April WEO.
Global inflation, tariffs, and trade developments
- January WEO projections (quoted):
- Global inflation expected to reach 4.2 percent in 2025 and 3.5 percent in 2026.
- Advanced economies expected to achieve inflation targets earlier than emerging market economies (January assessment).
- Recent developments:
- "Greater than expected persistence in inflation" since January; this will be incorporated into April WEO updates.
- IMF assessment: agile and proactive monetary policy needed to keep inflation expectations anchored.
- U.S. tariff announcements:
- IMF is assessing impacts of recent trade announcements, including tariffs on the auto sector and further announcements noted for April 2nd.
- Method for WEO incorporation: team will include announcements up to a cut-off date for production; developments after cut-off will be discussed qualitatively or in the risks section.
- Prior IMF guidance: sustained tariffs could have "a significant adverse impact" on Mexico and Canada; analysis for other regions ongoing.
- Directional risks:
- Potential effects on global supply chains, emerging markets in supply chains, and specific regional impacts (including Africa and the Caribbean) are under study and will be reported in the April WEO and regional briefings.
United States — recession risk and outlook
- IMF statement:
- U.S. economic performance "remarkably strong" through recent monetary tightening; activity and employment exceeded expectations and disinflation was less costly than feared (January WEO assessment).
- Incoming data signal a slowdown from the very strong pace in 2024.
- "Recession is not part of our baseline."
Sri Lanka — EFF Third Review and macro status
- IMF Executive Board action:
- On Friday, February 28th, the IMF Executive Board approved the Third Review under the EFF arrangement for Sri Lanka and "provided the country with immediate access to $334 million of support."
- With this $334 million, "it brings total financial support from the IMF to Sri Lanka to $1.34 billion."
- Economic assessment:
- Reforms are bearing fruit; recovery gaining momentum; inflation remains low; revenue collection improving; international reserves accumulating.
- Economic growth reached 5 percent in 2024 after two years of contraction; recovery expected to continue in 2025.
- Economy remains vulnerable; sustaining reform momentum is critical for durable macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability.
- SOEs:
- No specific comment on proposals to list state-owned enterprises; IMF will respond bilaterally on that question.
Pakistan — EFF and RSF First Review and access amounts
- Background:
- On September 25th, 2024, the Executive Board approved a 37-month EFF arrangement for Pakistan for $7 billion.
- A staff-level agreement on the First Review was reached on March 25th; a staff-level agreement on an RSF (Resilience and Sustainability Facility) was also reached on March 25th.
- Access and disbursements:
- EFF First Review: upon Executive Board approval, access to "about $1 billion" would be enabled for that disbursement.
- RSF: staff-level agreement references an amount of "$1.3 billion" over the life of the RSF, delivered in tranches, subject to Executive Board approval.
Lebanon — engagement and reform priorities
- Recent engagement:
- IMF fact-finding mission visited Lebanon from March 10th to 13th; staff welcomed the authorities' request for a new IMF-supported program.
- Engagement and discussions are ongoing to develop a comprehensive economic reform program.
- Reform priorities identified:
- Need for a comprehensive strategy for economic rehabilitation to restore growth, reduce unemployment, and improve social conditions.
- Program focus areas: fiscal and debt sustainability, financial sector restructuring, governance improvements, reforms to state owned enterprises, enhanced data provision, and improved transparency to inform policymaking.
- Timeline:
- No firm timeline for signing; discussions continue and IMF engagement is described as ongoing and constructive.
Egypt — Article IV, EFF Fourth Review, RSF, and macro projections
- IMF Executive Board action:
- On March 10th, the IMF Executive Board concluded the 2025 Article IV consultation and completed the Fourth Review under the EFF arrangement, enabling authorities to draw "$1.2 billion."
- The Executive Board also approved the RSF arrangement, which paves the way for Egypt to access "about $1.3 billion" over the life of the RSF.
- Projections (Egypt fiscal year 2025-2026):
- Growth projected at "4.1 percent" (increase from 3.6 percent in the previous fiscal year).
- Inflation expected to reach "13.4 percent" by the end of the period.
- Regional tensions impact:
- Disruptions in the Red Sea reduced Suez Canal foreign exchange inflows by "about $6 billion in 2024 alone" for Egypt; transit trade volume is "about one third of pre conflict levels."
- Main impact channel: Suez Canal revenue and trade disruptions affecting growth and fiscal revenues.
Caribbean — baseline and policy advice
- January 2025 baseline (quoted):
- Real GDP growth expected to reach "2.4 percent in 2025," about the same as in 2024.
- Inflation had moderated significantly in 2023 and 2024 and had returned to pre-Pandemic levels (January assessment).
- Policy advice:
- Pursue sustainable fiscal policies, rebuild policy buffers, strengthen resilience of domestic economies and institutions, accelerate infrastructure investment, and implement reforms to boost growth.
- Recent trade/tariff developments:
- IMF to update regional analysis in the April WEO and in regional briefings.
Kenya — program status and request for a new program
- Recent staff visit and status:
- IMF staff visited Kenya; a statement on March 17th noted that the Ninth Review under the EFF and ECF programs "would not proceed."
- Authorities have submitted a formal request for a new program; IMF staff are engaging on that request and remain closely in contact with the authorities.
- Assessment:
- IMF recognizes improved economic resilience, strengthened external position, and easing inflation.
- Fiscal challenges persist due to revenue shortfalls and additional spending pressures; requires reassessment of medium-term fiscal consolidation to preserve fiscal sustainability.
- IMF remains committed to supporting Kenya's economic efforts.
Nigeria, Senegal, and Zambia — updates and data issues
- Nigeria:
- First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath visited Abuja and Lagos on March 3rd and 4th; met with authorities and stakeholders.
- IMF staff to travel to Nigeria next week to prepare for the 2025 Article IV Consultation.
- Policy priorities: complete rollout of cash transfers to vulnerable households and improve domestic revenue mobilization.
- Senegal:
- IMF staff mission visited Senegal March 18th–26th to advance efforts to resolve a misreporting case.
- Senegal’s Court of Auditors final report (February 12) confirmed under-reporting of fiscal deficit and public debt for 2019–2023.
- IMF working closely with authorities to resolve misreporting, identify root causes, and provide technical assistance where requested.
- Responsibility for accurate and comprehensive data rests with member country authorities.
- Zambia:
- No update provided in the briefing; IMF will follow up bilaterally.
Black Sea Grain Initiative and global food security
- IMF monitoring:
- IMF is closely monitoring discussions around the Black Sea; about "7 percent" of global trade transits the Black Sea and key food commodities like wheat are concentrated in that trade.
- Improved transit through the Black Sea for key food commodities would "help ease food shortages globally."
- No full assessment provided at this time.
Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, March 27, 2025 — IMF Communications Department